This Saturday at Doncaster the curtain goes up for the start of another new flat turf season and – as always – the ultra-competitive SBK Lincoln Handicap is the feature contest.
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William Haggas Eyes A Record-breaking Fifth Lincoln Handicap Win
You might like the horse racing phrase ‘horses for courses’ – but here in the Lincoln Handicap it’s more like ‘Trainers For Races’!
That’s because the poweful William Haggas yard have a cracking record in the Lincoln Handicap, having won the race four times in the past and he needs just one more success to become the all-time leading trainer in this early season handicap.
The first Haggas winner in the Lincoln came with High Low (1992) and he’s since added victories with Very Wise (2007), Penitent (2010) and most recently Addeybb (2018).
He currently shares the spoils with an old handler called Jack Robinson, who, unless you’re aged 100+, you won’t have heard off – his wins in the Lincoln came between 1896 and 1910!
This year, however, Haggas has the chance to take the top Lincoln trainer in his own right and has a strong hand too. He runs three – Irish Admiral, Ametist and Mujtaba.
Lincoln Handicap Tips
The main trends (see below) lean us towards ruling out the horses aged 7 or older and those that are carrying 9st 5lbs or more in weight.
With 14 of the last 18 winners (78%) also coming from stalls 9 or higher, this can also help us put a negative against another 8 runners and two of these are the already mentioned Haggas runners – Mujtaba (drawn 2) and Irish Admiral (drawn 1).
Others near the head of the market – Modern News (drawn 8) and Saleymm (drawn 3) might also be worth taking on regarding the draw stat.
So, the two that catch the eye, and tick most of the main trends, are the remaining William Haggas runner – Ametist – and the Andrew Balding entry – Notre Belle Bete.
Ametist @ 14/1 with BetUK has a nice draw in 13, so will have options to go either way being drawn in the middle. He was a fair third last time out at HQ back in September in the Cambridgeshire, but has also won 50% of his 8 races so knows how to get his head in front. Cieren Fallon rides.
Notre Belle Bete @ 15/2 with BetUK is drawn 21 and will be race fitter than most after a spell on the all weather tracks. Yes, this 4 year-old is yet to win on the grass (7 runs), but he’s been placed second three times. He’s clearly improved over the winter since joining Balding – winning his last two – and looks an interesting contender.
Note: Odds are subject to change
Lincoln Handicap Trends
Use our key Lincoln Handicap betting trends to narrow down the 22 runners and find the best profiles of past winners.
For example, ALL of the last 18 Lincoln Handicap winners were aged 6 or younger. The 2022 Lincoln Handicap renewal has five horses aged 7 or older – Scottish Summit, Hortzadar, What’s The Story, Safe Voyage and Another Batt – that you could rule out based on this age trend.
- 18/18 – Aged 6 or younger
- 17/18 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
- 15/18 – Had won over at least 1m before
- 15/18 – Had won between 2-4 times before
- 14/18 – Drawn in stall 9 or higher
- 13/18 – Having their first run of the flat season
- 12/18 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
- 11/18 – Unplaced favourites
- 11/18 – Aged 4 years-old
- 10/18 – Returned a double figure price in the betting
- 10/18 – Officially rated between 95-100
- 10/18 – Placed first or second last time out
- 9/18 – Had raced at Doncaster before
- 8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
- 8/18 – Won last time out
- 7/18 – Raced at either Newmarket or Lingfield last time out
- 5/18 – Placed horses from stall 12 (1 winner)
- 4/18 – Placed horses from stall 16 (1 winner)
- 4/18 – Winning favourites
- 3/18 – Trained by William Haggas
- 2/18 – Trained by Richard Fahey
- 2/18 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
- 2/18 – Trained by John Quinn
- 2/18 – Trained by John Gosden
- 2/18 – Ridden by James Doyle (2 of last 3)
- 9 of the last 11 winners carried between 9-0 and 9-4 in weight
- Just 1 winner has carried 9-10 in the last 35 runnings
- The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/1
Lincoln Handicap Recent Winners
- 2021 – HAQEEQY (9/2)
- 2020 – Cancelled (Covid)
- 2019 – AUXERRE (5/2 fav)
- 2018 – ADDEYBB (5/1)
- 2017 – BRAVERY (20/1)
- 2016 – SECRET BRIEF (12/1)
- 2015 – GABRIAL (12/1)
- 2014 – OCEAN TEMPEST (33/1)
- 2013 – LEVITATE (20/1)
- 2012 – BRAE HILL (25/1)
- 2011 – SWEET LIGHTNING (16/1)
- 2010 – PENITENT (3/1 fav)
- 2009 – EXPRESSO STAR (10/3 fav)
- 2008 – SMOKEY OAKEY (10/1)
- 2007 – VERY WISE (9/1)
- 2006 – BLYTHE KNIGHT (22/1)
- 2005 – STREAM OF GOLD (5/1 fav)
- 2004 – BABODANA (20/1)
- 2003 – PABLO (5/1)
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