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July Stakes 2022 Trends, Tips and Horses Winning Probability

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little big bear

The July Stakes 2022 is one of the feature races on the opening day of the Newmarket July Festival this Thursday (7th July) and with the Richard Hannon yard winning the race 9 times over the years, their Persian Force will be a popular July Stakes tip. Andy Newton takes a look at the latest betting, each horses probability of winning and the main July Stakes trends (2:25pm).

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What Time Is The 2022 July Stakes?

🕙Time: 2:25pm (UK time)
📅Date: Thursday 7th July 2022
🏇Racecourse: Newmarket Races
💰 Winner: £56,710
📺 TV: RacingTV, ITV


DID YOU KNOW? The Richard Hannon yard have won the July Stakes 9 times since 1989


July Stakes Trends and Stats

Help find the winner of Thursday’s 2022 July Stakes using our key trends and stats

  • 19/20 – Had won over 5 or 6f previously
  • 18/20 – Placed in their last run
  • 17/20 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
  • 15/20 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
  • 12/20 – Won their last race
  • 11/20 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
  • 10/20 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
  • 10/20 – Unplaced favourites
  • 7/20 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (9 wins in total)
  • 6/20 – Winning favourites
  • 1/20 – Winners that came from stall 1

Is The 2022 July Stakes A Two Horse Shoot-out?

persian force

This year’s 2022 July Stakes certainly does look between two horses as the Richard Hannon-trained PERSIAN FORCE @ 6/4 with 10Bet and the Aidan O’Brien runner LITTLE BIG BEAR @ 13/8 with 10Bet are dominating the betting – with most bookmakers finding it hard to split them.

Persian Force will represent a yard that have won this race 9 times over the years and after a decent start to his 2 year-old career – winning at Newbury and Doncaster – wasn’t disgraced when second in the G2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

That Group Two form is the best on offer and having stayed on well that day we know he’s one of the few on the race that will be fine over this 6f trip.

Little Big Bear, on the otherhand, does have a bit to prove over this 6f distance after being beaten over it on debut back in April. However, he’s since won twice over 5f, so has plenty of pace and the form of this recent Windsor Castle win at Royal Ascot has been boosted with the second bolting up at Sandown recently. O’Brien won this race in 2019.

Those looking to spoil the party with regards to the first two in the betting will be the Michael Bell runner Brave Nation, who was a fair 4th in the Norfolk Stakes last time, and Godolphin’s Mysterious Night, who was an easy winner at Newbury last time out.

The Hannon Yard Have Won The July Stakes 9 Times

It’s hard to ignore the good record of the Hannon yard in this race over the years – they’ve landed the July Stakes a remarkable 9 times!

Hannon Snr has been responsible for 6 of those wins and the current handler – Hannon Jr – has followed in his father’s footsteps with 3 successes.

The first Hannon winner came in 1989, when Willie Carson guided home their Rock City, while their most recent was only last year when the Pat Dobbs-ridden Lusail continued the stable’s fine record in the race.

2022 July Stakes Tip and Best Bet

Persian Force looks to have the best form in the book, having run second in a Group Two and we know the trip is fine. That coupled with the yard’s excellent record in the race means he’s hard to overlook.

However, the O’Brien runner – LITTLE BIG BEAR @ 13/8 with 10Bet – just edges it. Yes, the step up to 5f is a small worry, but he’s a stronger and wiser horse now since losing on debut over this 6f trip and his breeding suggests he’s certainly worth another crack at it. He’s a pacey sort and being foaled in January is also a tiny bit older than most of these and even those extra weeks/months to mature can be a huge plus during a horse’s 2 year-old campaign.

Note: Odds are subject to change.

July Stakes 2022 Latest Betting, Runners and Probability Of Winning

July Stakes Horse Latest Odds Win Probability Bookmaker
PERSIAN FORCE 6/4 40% 10bet logo new
LITTLE BIG BEAR 13/8 38% 10bet logo new
MYSTERIOUS NIGHT 13/2 13% 10bet logo new
BRAVE NATION 8/1 11% 10bet logo new
WAITING ALL NIGHT 16/1 6% 10bet logo new
HARRY TIME 22/1 5% 10bet logo new
SHOW RESPECT 40/1 2.5% 10bet logo new
KING’S CROWN 100/1 1% 10bet logo new

All odds correct as of 08:29 BST on Weds, 7 July and subject to change

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Recent July Stakes Winners

  • 2021     LUSAIL (15/2)
  • 2020     TACTICAL (5/2)
  • 2019     ROYAL LYTHAM (11/1)
  • 2018     ADVERTISE (11/10 fav)
  • 2017     CARDSHARP (8/1)
  • 2016     MEHMAS (11/4 fav)
  • 2015     SHALAA (14/1)
  • 2014     IVAWOOD (3/1 fav)
  • 2013     ANJAAL (14/1)
  • 2012     ALHEBAYEB (9/2)

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2022 Newmarket July Festival Race Times and Schedule

Newmarket July Festival: Thursday 7th July 2022

  • 1:20 – British Stallion Studs EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl2 (2yo) 6f RTV
  • 1:50 – Bahrain Trophy Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo) 1m5f ITV
  • 2:25 – Close Brothers July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV
  • 3:00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV
  • 3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Close Brothers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV
  • 4:10 – Edmondson Hall Solicitors Sir Henry Cecil Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo) 1m RTV
  • 4:40 – Weatherbys Hamilton Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-95) 1m RTV

Newmarket July Festival: Friday 8th July 2022

  • 1:15 – Weatherbys British EBF Maiden Stakes (Colts & Geldings) Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV
  • 2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored By bet365) (Group 2) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV
  • 3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV
  • 3:35 – Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV
  • 4:10 – Arioneo Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 7f RTV
  • 4:45 – Moet & Chandon Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 5f RTV

Newmarket July Festival: Saturday 9th July 2022

  • 1:30 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Fillies’ Stakes (GBB Race) Cl3 (2yo) 7f RTV
  • 2:05 – Bedford Lodge Hotel & Spa Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f ITV
  • 2:40 – bet365 Mile Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 1m ITV
  • 3:15 – bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 (2yo) 7f ITV
  • 3:50 – bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 7f ITV
  • 4:25 – Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1) (British Champions Series) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV
  • 5:00 – Discover Newmarket Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-90) 1m4f RTV