Another NAP of the Day from SportsLens tipsters for Friday, 24 September, is Supremely Lucky. This 3/1 shot runs in the 2m 7f novices’ limited handicap chase at Worcester (2:25).
After consulting with our experts, their unanimous pick was this newcomer to the Charlie Longsdon stable as the best Bet of the Day. Supremely Lucky ended last season in decent form and has eased in the weights, so this could be day for a first success over fences. Discover why this could be his time below. Learn more about this NAP of the Day for 24 September and why Supremely Lucky looks worth backing at 3/1.
Why will Supremely Lucky win?
Longsdon runners have a better than 25 per cent strike rate in September. This is clearly a time of year when the stable makes hay, then. Supremely Lucky moves to the yard from Dan Skelton, where he won four of his 19 starts. His last two wins over hurdles came off marks of 133 and 130, so his current rating of 131 should be workable.
Supremely Lucky is now a nine-year-old but this is the earliest in the jumps season he has been out. The form of his half-length second to Know The Score over course and distance from October 2019 off 133 still reads well today. That race has thrown up plenty of subsequent winners. The front two pulled nine lengths clear of the third, Head To The Stars, who has landed the last two renewals of the Fobra Gold Cup at Ludlow.
Even those down the field and tailed off in seventh and ninth have got their heads in front. Supremely Lucky returns to Worcester off 2lb lower than then, and did well in the spring. Following victory over hurdles at Warwick in February, the Milan gelding placed in a beginners’ chase at Huntingdon (the fifth has scored since) and twice when back over timber off 136.
There is now 6lb difference between Supremely Lucky’s ratings in the two National Hunt sphere. The slack he’s been cut by the handicapper makes him a value play against a favourite that took a fall last time out and is up 4lb despite not completing. Betting £25 on Supremely Lucky returns £100 with £75 profit at his current odds. If he loses, then QuinnBet will refund the stake in the form a free bet.
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