Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience in the industry. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website as well as an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV. He specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting and is now providing these tips on SportsLens.com
Why a systems approach? Stats and betting systems help me to quickly identify which races I should be concentrating on when it comes to tipping. If I can use systems to find a weak favourite to oppose then I’m halfway to finding a profitable bet. For example, Kempton’s all-weather track strongly favours low-drawn runners and horses who win from low draws are often flattered. Opposing low-drawn winners on their next start is a profitable exercise and there was a good example at Chelmsford recently (12 September 2021) with Mutafawwig. He had won from stall 2 of 11 at Kempton on his previous run and was sent off as the 4-6 favourite for a competitive Class 2 handicap on the back of that victory. He finished fifth of the seven runners this time. My database has a system named ‘Flattered Kempton Winners’ which automatically flags up any horses who won from stall 1 or stall 2 in a Kempton race of eight or more runners on their latest outing. Betting all the qualifiers since racing’s resumption last summer would yielded a loss of £83.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (starting price). Many of these were short-priced favourites like Mutafawwig. I also have numerous positive angles regarding speed figures, draw, pace, breeding, age, time of year, trainers, jockeys, headgear and wind surgery etc. For instance, backing any progeny of the sire Milan on their first outing following a wind operation would have found 16 winners from 73 bets and returned a profit of £126.38 to a £1 level stake (+173% on turnover). Some horses will qualify on multiple systems and these are often good bets, some races throw up positives about most of the field and these races are best left alone. In this column I will sift through the daily qualifiers and share the ones I regard as the strongest bets.
2.10 – GREAT NEWS (system – beaten from low draw at Lingfield last time)
Since the beginning of August, Lingfield’s all-weather track has featured a ‘dead’ rail – the Polytrack surface has looked deeper on the inside putting low-drawn runners at a disadvantage. This also has a detrimental affect on frontrunners who, regardless of their draw, tend to head towards the inside and race on the slowest part of the track. Those runners who are beaten from their disadvantageous low draws often make good bets next time out, as the betting market overreacts to an excusable loss. GREAT NEWS took the inside route when runner-up from stall 2 in a 7f handicap at Lingfield last time and will be happier back on turf and down in trip to 6f. He was a good second at Newmarket on his latest attempt at this distance and trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a fine record at this venue, scoring with 17 of his 48 runners (35.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £21.03 to a £1 level stake at SP.
2.40 – UNDER OATH (system – Andrew Balding 2yos on third career start, turf only)
Andrew Balding’s two-year-olds usually need a run or two before reaching their potential and had we simply bet all his juveniles on their third career outing, on turf only, we would have won 38 our 132 bets since the start of the 2016 season (29% strike-rate) for a profit of £75.15 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of wins based on their odds was just 24, giving an actual over expected ratio (A/E) of 1.58. UNDER OATH is the latest qualifier on this system and is worth chancing at big odds despite having only finished seventh in both her previous outings.
1.30 – BENZEMA – nursery weight rank system
2.00 – ALEX GRACIE – sire Fountain Of Youth system 2
2.30 – BARTZELLA – Golden Horn 3yos August onwards system / Golden Horn 3yos 1m3f+ system
1.15 – DUBAI GUEST – Olly Murphy first-time tongue-tie system
1.45 – TOM O’ROUGHLEY – Alastair Ralph chase debutant in handicap system
4.00 – THUNDERSTRUCK – first-time wind operation and tongue-tie Jumps system
5.15 – MISS ROSA BELLA – Richard Fahey first-time cheekpieces system / Kempton 6f draw system
6.15 – ROSEBERRY TOPPING – Andrew Balding second-time out 2yo system
7.45 – MAKETH BELIEVETH – poorly drawn on Lingfield’s AW last time out system
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