The Epsom Derby betting market had a slight shake-up on Friday as the Godolphin camp finally confirmed they will be supplementing their Nations Pride for the 4th of June Classic.
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Nations Pride Supplemented At £75,000 For Derby
After impressing in a recent workout, the Charlie Appleby yard finally confirmed they would be supplementing their recent Newmarket Listed winner – Nations Pride – for the 2022 Cazoo Epsom Derby.
The cost to get this Teofilo colt into the Epsom Derby was £75,000 – but with their Adayar netting £637k 12 months ago by winning the race, they will be hoping the gamble pays off.
Nations Pride will need to finish third of better to justify the payout, while if he finishes fourth he’ll amost recoup the outlay with the 2021 fourth-placed Derby horse getting £60k.
This 3 year-old was last seen winning by 7 lengths at Newmarket in a Listed race over 1m2f and has now won all of his last four starts. He’s clearly a fast-improving middle distance horse and now upped in trip to 1m4f for the first time could even eke out more.
Most bookmakers have slotted him in as third favourite (see below) behind recent Dante scorer Desert Crown and the Aidan O’Brien-trained Stone Age.
Charlie Appleby Told The Racing Post
“He worked on Wednesday with a reliable and very able lead horse and he looked very good. Importantly, he has done well since and I have been delighted with him since the gallop,” Appleby said.
“He has the right profile for Epsom. He’s got five runs under his belt, having won the Jumeirah Derby and then taking the Newmarket Stakes, where William [Buick] was very pleased the way he went through the line.
“It gave us as good an indication as any that the step up to a mile and a half is going to suit him and we think he deserves to be supplemented.”
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Desert Crown Remains Epsom Derby Favourite
Not many horses have raced just twice before winning the Epsom Derby – Workforce (2010) was the last, but that’s exactly what the Sir Michael Stoute-trained DESERT CROWN @ 7/4 with BetUK will be trying to do. This 3 year-old has won both starts in decent fashion, with the last of those being a smooth success in the Dante Stakes at York – a decent Epsom Derby Trial over the years.
This year’s Epsom Derby will be run on Saturday 4th June.
Did you know? Four of the last 20 Dante Stakes winners went onto win the Epsom Derby, while the 2021 Dante Stakes winner – Hurricane Lane – ran third in the Epsom Derby.
Golden Horn was the most recent Dante winner (2015) to go and win the Epsom Derby.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained Stone Age @ 5/2 with BetUK is next best in the Epsom Derby betting market after his recent romp in the Leopardstown Derby Trial. With the recently supplemented Nations Pride @ 6/1 with BetUK generally the third favourite with most firms.
The Donnacha O’Brien runner- Piz Badile – @ 8/1 with BetUK – who has won two of this three starts, is also prominent in the market, while another Aidan O’Brien entry – Changingoftheguard @ 9/1 with BetUK , who won the Chester Vase well last time out – next best.
Godolphin Bid For Third Epsom Derby Win
The ‘boys in blue’ of Godolphin have surprisingly only landed the Epsom Derby twice before, but with those two successes coming in the last four years then they are certainly making up for lost time.
12 months ago their Adayar was a shock winner with Adam Kirby riding, and that win followed up their victory in the Epsom Classic in 2018 with Masar – meaning the Godolphin colours have been responsible for two of the last four Derby winners.
Latest Epsom Derby Betting With BetUK
|Star Of India||23/2|
|Walk Of Stars||13/1|
|BAR THE FIELD||16/1|
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Epsom Derby Betting Trends To Help Find The Winner
- 19/20 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
- 18/20 – Raced no more than 5 times before
- 18/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
- 16/20 – Had won a Group race before
- 16/20 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
- 14/20 – Had run over at least 1m2f before
- 13/20 – Won last time out
- 13/20 – Won from a single-figure stall
- 12/20 – Favourites that were placed
- 11/20 – Had raced no more than 3 times before
- 10/20 – Irish-trained winners
- 8/20 – Had won a Group One before
- 7/20 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (won 8 in all)
- 6/20 – Won by the favourite
- 5/20 – Ran in the 2,000 Guineas that season (2 winners)
- 4/20 – Won the Dante Stakes (York) last time out
- 4/20 – Winners from stall 12 or higher
- 3/20 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won 5 in all)
- 2/20 – Won over 1m4f before
- 1/20 – Winners from stall 1 (Adayar)
- 0/20 – Run at the course before
- The average winning SP in the last 20 runnings is 8/1
- 10 Dante winners went onto win the Derby (Golden Horn, 2015 being the most-recent)
- Only 1 horse that was beaten in the Dante (Workforce) went onto win the Derby
Epsom Derby Trainer Stats
Sir Michael Stoute won the race in 2010, 2004, 2003, 1986 & 1981
Aidan O’Brien won the race in 2002, 2001, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2017, 2018 and 2020
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