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Liverpool 91%, Manchester United 67%, Chelsea and Arsenal 58% sure of progressing to last eight of Champions League

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All English clubs mathematically assured of quarterfinals

If all mathematical favourites progress in the Champions League, the quarterfinals will consist of four sides from England, a club from Germany, one from Portugal and teams from Greece and Spain:


  • When looking at the history of European competition in a two legged knockout round format, all 51 teams that won the first leg by 5-0 away progressed to the next round, making Sporting CP’s mission virtually impossible.
  • Liverpool have percentage wise a 91% chance to reach the last eight following their 1-0 win at Real Madrid a fortnight ago.
  • FC Porto’s 2-2 draw at Atlético Madrid made them prohibitive favourites to go through at 84%-16%.
  • Panathinaikos and FC Barcelona are both favoured by 77 percentage points to 23 following 1-1 away draws at Villarreal CF and Olympique Lyon respectively.
  • Manchester United hold a 67-33 edge over Internazionale as historically two thirds of the sides that earned a first leg goalless draw away from home have advanced.
  • Chelsea and Arsenal are slight favourites (58-42) after securing 1-0 home wins against Juventus and AS Roma respectively.

Odds of advancing to CL quarterfinals following first leg of second round

Date Home team 1st leg Away team 1st leg Result Home team Away team
24 Feb 2009 Arsenal (ENG) AS Roma (ITA) 1-0 58% 42%
24 Feb 2009 Atlético Madrid (ESP) FC Porto (POR) 2-2 16% 84%
24 Feb 2009 Internazionale (ITA) Manchester United (ENG) 0-0 33% 67%
24 Feb 2009 Olympique Lyon (FRA) FC Barcelona (ESP) 1-1 23% 77%
25 Feb 2009 Chelsea (ENG) Juventus (ITA) 1-0 58% 42%
25 Feb 2009 Real Madrid (ESP) Liverpool (ENG) 0-1 9% 91%
25 Feb 2009 Sporting CP (POR) Bayern München 0-5 0% 100%
25 Feb 2009 Villarreal CF (ESP) Panathinaikos (GRE) 1-1 23% 77%

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