This Tuesday, the Andrew Mount horse racing betting tips column contains a magnificent seven fancies from across the UK. After some two decades in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster lets us in on his nifty systems. Andrew writes for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook on a regular basis, while his tips also appear on GG.co.uk. Listen to William Hill Radio and watch Racing Post TV to hear more from him as he’s on both as a pundit. Andrew lets the stats do the talking when it comes to betting, and that approach often pays off!
Andrew has selections from Brighton, Huntingdon, Kempton and Leicester in his latest column. Read all of his horse racing betting tips for October 5th and why they appeal below:
Brighton
1.00 – HOMEMADE ANDREA (system – sire Showcasing on good to soft or softer going)
The step up to 7f and first-time tongue-tie brought about major improvement from HOMEMADE ANDREA at Wolverhampton last time where she scored narrowly at 33-1. The time was nothing special, though she still has the co-best last-time out speed figure in today’s line-up (according to Raceform’s ratings) and, more importantly, she’s bred to appreciate today’s very soft conditions. Her patient running style is also likely to be an asset, as she can get cover from the forecast strong wind.
2.40 – LILANDRA (system – sire Equiano on soft or heavy going)
LILANDRA is an 18-race maiden but 11 of those runs came on the all-weather and progeny of Equiano fare much better on turf, especially when the mud is flying. Since 2016, had we backed all Equianos in handicaps on the Flat when the ground was officially soft or heavy, then we’d have won 43 of our 281 bets (15.3% strike-rate) and made a profit of £62.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. She’s attracted a nibble of support overnight and could hit the frame at a big price.
Leicester
3.22 – DOWNSMAN (system – sire Fast Company on soft or heavy going)
Backing all Fast Company progeny on soft or heavy going on the Flat since 2016 would have found 84 winners from 641 bets (13.1% strike-rate) for a profit of £53.75 to £1 and DOWNSMAN looks interesting back on his favoured surface. He was well beaten on good ground at Epsom last time, but won well on heavy at Haydock the time before and remains open to further improvement on just his eighth career start.
Huntingdon
2.30 – DEMON D’AUNOU (system – Jonjo O’Neill in handicap hurdles at Huntingdon)
Since the start of 2016, trainer Jonjo O’Neill has a 13 from 52 record with his handicap hurdlers at Huntingdon (25% strike-rate) for a profit of £32.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. DEMON D’AUNOU impressed in winning from off the pace over fences at Stratford in July. That track strongly favours prominent racers, so it’s interesting to see him revert to hurdles after disappointing at Uttoxeter the following month. Jonjo has only switched to chasers back to hurdles at Huntingdon in recent years and both won (10-1 and 7-1).
4.15 – JUST TOBY (system – David Dennis in Huntingdon handicaps)
David Dennis, back training in his own right after two spells as an assistant handler, has always done well with his course runners in handicap company, scoring with 11 of the 48 qualifiers for a profit of £24.45 to a £1 level stake at SP. JUST TOBY looks to have been campaigned with handicaps in mind and might find improvement now running in one for the first time.
He hasn’t been out for six months, but ran creditably on his seasonal debut last year, finishing a 28-1 fourth in a Uttoxeter bumper. The three that finished in front of him that day are now rated 134, 123 and 117, suggesting that an opening handicap mark of 96 is workable at least. He was well held in three novice hurdle runs but all came at 2m and the step up in trip after a break could be just the ticket.
Kempton
7.00 – ADRASTUS (systems – Hugo Palmer with first-time blinkers on geldings & Hugo Palmer with first-time blinkers in AW handicaps)
ADRASTUS didn’t show a huge amount in a 1m6f handicap at Redcar last time, but might be worth one more chance now that he wears blinkers for the first time and drops back in trip. Hugo Palmer has an eight from 31 record when using first-time blinkers on geldings in the past five years (+£44.88 to a £1 level stake at SP) and he’s 11 from 37 when using any type of first-time headgear on his geldings in an all-weather handicaps.
7.30 – SHABBAB & CABRAKAN (system – Richard Hannon, all-weather debutants in Kempton nurseries)
There are plenty that can be fancied in this Class 5 nursery over the 1m trip including Richard Hannon-trained pair CABRAKAN and SHABBAB. Since taking over the training licence from his father, Hannon is eight from 44 with his all-weather debutants in Kempton nurseries for a profit of £21.13 to a £1 level stake.
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