Leading horse racing advisor Andrew Mount is a contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. He is also a regular pundit on William Hill Racing Radio. Andrew stats-based approach to betting unearthed an 8-1 winner on Monday and he has some interesting angles for Thursday’s racing.
Andrew heads to Sedgefield and Chelmsford for three bets on Thursday November 11th:
COUNTISTER (system – owner J P McManus in Class 5 jumps handicaps)
Leading owner J P McManus is best known for success at the Cheltenham festival but his gold and green colours show a profit in low-grade British handicaps. Had we backed all his hurdlers/chasers in Class 5 handicaps we’d have won 102 of our 452 bets (22.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £119.02 to a £1 level stake at SP. COUNTISTER was a comfortable winner in this grade at Kelso in September and her subsequent defeats have come in Class 4 and Class 3 company. Those runs also came over 2m4f, a trip that stretches her, and she can bounce back now down in trip and grade.
LILA GIRL (systems – Michael Bell second-time out 2yos & sire Pride Of Dubai fillies on the AW)
Michael Bell’s second-time out juveniles have a respectable record on the all-weather, winning seven of their 63 starts since 2012 for a profit of £64.68 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who were rested for more than three weeks since their debut effort were seven from 26 (+£101.68). LILA GIRL, well drawn tonight in stall 2, was backed into favouritism for a novice contest at Newmarket last month but missed a beat at the start and ran green, becoming unbalance in the dip. She kept on into a respectable sixth and her sire, Pride Of Dubai, is eight from 28 with his female progeny on the all-weather in Britain (+£14.52). She can get off the mark tonight.
NAPPER TANDY (system – last-time-out Newcastle frontrunners)
Andrew Balding’s NAPPER TANDY impressed me when winning from the front over the extended 1m4f trip at Newcastle last time and the rival who pressed him for the lead, Glen Again, dropped away to finish last of four. That one bounced back to win next time and Napper Tandy can defy an absence tonight. The step up to 1m6f will suit and his two previous efforts on Polytrack have produced a 10-1 short-head second at Lingfield and a Kempton win. The presence of fellow pacesetter Roseabad tempers confidence slightly but he’s still worth an interest.
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