Andrew Mount’s October 2nd horse racing betting tips column includes his six best bets for Saturday. After over two decades working in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster lets punters in on his secret systems. Andrew produces regular columns in the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, while his tips also appear on GG.co.uk. Tune in to William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV where he appears as a regular pundit. Andrew loves taking the statistical approach to on his betting and there are reasons why punters should follow!
After a 9/4 winner at Newcastle on Friday, Andrew has fancies from Ascot, Killarney, Chester, Redcar and Wolverhampton today. See why these horses appeal on a busy Saturday below:
Ascot
4.25 – PENDLETON (system – sire Garswood 4yo+ on the Flat)
Progeny of Garswood tend not to reach their peak until they hit the age of four. If we had backed all the older qualifiers on the Flat (turf or All-Weather), then we’d have found 33 winners from 232 runners (14.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £89.58 to a £1 level stake at SP.
PENDLETON rarely shows much in high summer (June-August) but his record outside of this period reads 2212512210 (3-10), improving to 2211221 (3-7) on good to soft/softer going or an all-weather surface. He wasn’t disgraced on unsuitably fast ground when 40-1 for the Ayr Gold Cup last time, finishing eleventh of 24, and can bounce back with underfoot conditions in his favour.
Killarney
1.25 – SHOW OF STARS (system – Paddy Twomey newcomers)
There are two strong angles where the Paddy Twomey yard is concerned – backing stable switchers (horses he takes over from other yards) at the first time of asking and backing racecourse debutants. SHOW OF STARS qualifies on the latter system which has produced 11 winners from 65 runners (17% strike-rate) for a profit of £32.20 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Splitting these by class makes interesting reading. They notched just two winners from 30 runners in Class D or higher grade, but are nine from 29 in Class E company (31%, +£56.20). Today’s race is a Class E contest, so Show Of Stars could be worth a wager.
Chester
2.30 – FIRST COMPANY (system – sire Fast Company on soft or heavy going)
FIRST COMPANY trailed home last of 22 at York in August on his latest outing, but he’s been gelded since and will appreciate the soft going and return to Chester. He’s only raced here twice previously, finishing second by three-quarters of a length off a handicap mark of 94 (5f, good to soft) and a hampered fifth off 96 when only going down by a length and a half (5f, good).
He races off a mark of just 85 today and has the plum draw in stall 1. The sire, Fast Company, has a solid record with his progeny on soft or heavy going, scoring with 84 of the 639 runners (13.2%) since the beginning of 2016 for a profit of £55.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. Eliminating the two-year-olds from calculations increases the profit to £127.95 at SP (almost 25% on turnover).
3.05 – LOTUS ROSE (systems – Jane Elliott small fields & sire Showcasing on soft ground)
Jane Elliott has an uncanny knack of being in the right place at the right time in small field, tactical races on turf and this underrated jockey is taken to get a tune out of LOTUS ROSE.
Since the start of 2019, had we backed her turf mounts in fields of nine or fewer runners we would have won 34 of our 192 bets (17.8% strike-rate) and made a profit of £63.35 at SP.
The filly’s sire, Showcasing, features on my list of juvenile soft-ground sires and, since racing resumed after lockdown last June, his two-year-old progeny are showing a profit of £70.23 to a £1 level stake on good to soft or softer going.
Redcar
4.45 – DELGREY BOY (system – Redcar straight-course handicaps, low draws)
Tim Easterby has won four of the last five renewals of this straight-mile series final and has another live chance with DELGREY BOY, who has the best of the draw in stall 1 of 12. Apart from a blip in August, it’s been a big advantage to be drawn low on the straight course (5f-1m) at Redcar this term.
Backing the horses drawn in stalls 1 and 2 blind in handicaps would have found 18 winners from 96 bets for a profit of £21.24. If the forecast strong tailwind materialises, then this prominent racer could prove hard to catch.
Wolverhampton
6.30 – CANFORD BAY (system – Antony Brittain all-weather runners, recent outing)
CANFORD BAY caught the eye when fourth at Newcastle last week, doing best of those ridden prominently in a race run to suit the closers. His trainer’s All-Weather runners have a sound record when returned to the track quickly (within ten days), scoring with 58 of the 339 qualifiers (17.1%) for a profit of £45.50. Canford Bay has qualified on this system on 12 occasions, winning three times for a profit of £16.50.
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