A new week means plenty more Andrew Mount columns packed full of horse racing betting tips. After over 20 years in the industry, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster shares his super systems with us. Andrew writes for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook regularly, while his tips also appear on GG.co.uk. Tune in to William Hill Radio and watch Racing Post TV to hear more from him as he’s often on as a pundit. Andrew takes a statistical approach to betting and shows how it pays off!
This Monday sees Andrew put selections up from Lingfield, Pontefract, Stratford and Wolverhampton. Read all about his latest fancies below…
1.00pm – ETON COLLEGE (system – Mark Johnston, wore first-time blinkers on previous outing)
Mark Johnston has a poor strike-rate with his first-time blinkered runners but they often make good bets on their next start. Some 14 of the 82 qualifiers since the beginning of 2016 went on to win next time for a huge profit of £137.38 to a £1 level stake at SP.
ETON COLLEGE was only sixth of the eight runners at Chelmsford last time but wasn’t beaten by far after meeting trouble in-running and looks interesting now he’s had that run to get used to wearing the headgear. He tends to come from off the pace – unusual for a Johnston runner – and there are plenty of pacesetters/prominent racers to tee things up for him today.
3.00 – MY FRANKEL (system – older Frankel progeny over 1m4f+ on the AW)
Sir Michael Stoute’s MY FRANKEL has proved very disappointing on turf but he’s two from two on Polytrack, so could bounce back to form now that he returns to an artificial surface. Older progeny (4yo+) of Frankel do extremely well over longer trips on the All-Weather (1m 4f+), winning 28 of their 98 starts (28.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £24.41 to a £1 level stake at SP. Five of these were trained by Stoute, with four winning (9-2, 15-8, 13-8 and 8-15) and the other finishing fourth at 10-1.
1.39 – PONS AELIUS (system – last-time out Newcastle AW frontrunners)
Making the running on the round course at Newcastle (distances of 1m 2f+) usually results in defeat, as the Tapeta surface strongly favours those who come from off the pace. Horses who run well from the front can be upgraded and they show a good profit on their next start. The system rules are simple – back any horse who finished in the first four under a frontrunning ride over 1m 2f or further on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface last time out.
This angle has found 46 winners from 194 bets (23.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £86.87 to a £1 level stake at SP. PONS AELIUS was too green to do himself justice when a 9-2 shot for his racecourse debut at Goodwood last month, finishing seventh of the eight runners, and has since finished third from the front at Newcastle.
The winner and runner-up both came from well off the pace and, although beaten a long way, it was still a worthy effort. His attacking style is usually an asset at Pontefract and he could prove hard to pass.
1.45 – FORT DENISON (system – Venetia Williams, Flat to low-grade hurdles switch)
There are a couple of horses I want to oppose here. First, there is Wicked Willy, the 11-4 market leader at the time of writing, tends to peak early in the year with three of his five wins coming in January. Second, Macho Mover, whose trainer Olly Murphy has a poor recent record with last-time out winners (-£100.10 to a £1 level stake at SP in the past five years).
Take them on with FORT DENISON, who is having his first jumps outing since joining Venetia Williams. He showed promise in this sphere for Tim Vaughan and has run respectably in three Flat outings for his new handler. Had we backed the yard’s hurdle runners in Class 4 or lower company, who were switching from the Flat, we’d have won 15 of our 68 bets this century and made a profit of £32.08 to a £1 level stake at SP.
5.30 – MELLENCAMP (system – Kodi Bear Wolverhampton runners)
Sire Kodi Bear has done well with his Wolverhampton runners, with seven of the 30 scoring for a profit of £61.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. Of the 23 beaten horses, 11 finished placed, so an each-way approach is recommended for MELLENCAMP who ran too freely when a modest fifth over 6f here last time. The drop to the minimum trip could help and it may settle better in the first-time hood.
6.00 – BREATH OF SUN (system – Racing League ‘flops’ dropping in class)
The Racing League series of valuable Class 3 handicaps were strongly contested and very difficult to win. Horses who flopped in those races (defined as finishing sixth or worse) often bounce back at the next time of asking if dropped in grade to Class 4 or lower level.
This system has thrown up ten winners from 66 bets (15.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £61.63 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£145.82 at Betfair SP). BREATH OF SUN could only finish a 22-1 seventh in a £25,000 to the winner Racing League contest last time but that race has already thrown up two winners and tonight’s first prize is less than £5,000.
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