Racing advisor Andrew Mount is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing Post Weekender, Racing & Football Outlook and the GG.co.uk website. His punditry skills can also be heard on William Hill Radio. Andrew’s stats-based approach to betting has been firing in the winners of late and he starts the new week with four selections.
Andrew was among the winners again on Sunday with Old Roan Chase victor Allmankind and he has four picks at Leicester and Newcastle on Monday October 25th:
DASHING ROGER (system – sire Fast Company, soft or heavy going on the Flat)
Progeny of Fast Company have a solid record on the Flat on soft or heavy going, winning 90 of their 673 starts (13.4% strike-rate) for a profit of £42.37 to a £1 level stake at SP. DASHING ROGER won at Sandown in May when last encountering this sort of surface and today’s race is considerably easier than the Balmoral Handicap in which he finished 17th of 20 last time.
MILLION THANKS (system – sire Churchill, second-time out 2yos)
Progeny of first-season sire Churchill have a poor record on their racecourse debuts, winning just once from 52 starts. They do much better at the second time of asking (eight wins from 43) though we’d still lose money by backing them blind (-£17.71). However, those who finished within five lengths of the winner on their debuts won six of their 14 starts for a profit of £7.21 and that’s the angle with MILLION THANKS, too green to do himself justice when beaten by just over two lengths into second at Ayr last month.
SIMPLY GORGEOUS (system – Richard Fahey, 2yo handicap debutants at Newcastle)
Richard Fahey does well with his nursery debutants at this venue, scoring with six of the 21 qualifiers for a profit of £32.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. SIMPLY GORGEOUS showed promise at Redcar and over tonight’s course and distance on her first two outings and can be forgiven her subsequent Redcar seventh as she had the worst of the draw in stall 9 of 9 (first three drawn 3, 2 and 1).
ZENZERO (system – sire Twilight Son, 3yos, 5f-7f on fast ground or AW)
Three-year-old progeny of Twilight Son seem happiest over 5f-7f on a quick surface (good or faster turf or the all-weather), winning 39 of their 189 starts (20.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £19.78 to a £1 level stake at SP. At Newcastle only their record is five from 15 (+£9.10), with three of the beaten horses finishing second (18-1, 10-1 and 11-4). ZENZERO became a rare winning miler for the sire at this venue on his penultimate start, though his stamina gave out over the same trip next time. Dropping back to 7f looks a good move.
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