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Andrew Mount Horse Racing Tips – Wednesday September 29th

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Another horse racing betting tips column penned by industry insider Andrew Mount contains eight bets for this Wednesday. After more than two decades in the business, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster shares his systems with punters. Andrew is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, and his tips appear on GG.co.uk. He also appears on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV as a pundit. Andrew looks for unique statistical angles to his betting and this creates handy systems!

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Andrew has plenty of fancies from up and down the UK today. Read all about his selections from Bangor, Catterick, Kempton and Nottingham below:

Nottingham

1.00 – GABRIELLA’S SPIRIT (system – jockey Jason Hart on sprinters)

Jason Hart has a reputation for being good on sprinters and his actual/expected score in races over 5f-6f in the past five seasons is a healthy 1.19 (he’s ridden 178 winners, whereas the market says it should have been closer to 149). We’d have lost money by backing them blind but, by concentrating on the better races (Class 4 or above), we’d have turned a profit of £83.01 to a £1 level stake at SP in the same period.

GABRIELLA’S SPIRIT trailed home last of eight on her debut at Catterick back in May, but was rested for four months afterwards and returned to finish a solid 50-1 third at Haydock. That form was boosted when the runner-up went one better in Listed company at Ayr, so she can get off the mark here.

Back Gabriella’s Spirit at SBK

1.30 – PADDY’S FANCY (systems – New Bay second-time out 2yos & New Bay 2yos on turf over 7f+)

PADDY’S FANCY was last of eight at Newcastle on her recent debut, but the switch to turf will suit and she could take a big step forward with that outing behind her. Backing juvenile progeny of New Bay on their second career start would have found 16 winners from 86 runners (18.6% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.88 to a £1 level stake.

Siding with all New Bay two-year-olds over 7f+ on turf, regardless of how many runs they’d had, produced 21 winners from 78 bets (27%) for a profit of £51.45. The Racing Post tissue price has her at 66-1 and, with her small stable in good form, she could make a mockery of those odds.

Bet on Paddy’s Fancy at SBK

Bangor

1.40 – ROBIN DES THEATRE (system – Michael Scudamore handicap chase debutants)

Michael Scudamore-trained runners have a good record when making their handicap chase debuts, with 11 of the 59 qualifiers winning for a profit of £28.75 to the usual £1 stake. Those who were switching from hurdles, as ROBIN DES THEATRE does here, have a ten from 44 record for a profit of £37.75.

Back Robin Des Theatre at SBK

3.10 – ZAFAR (system – Donald McCain handicap hurdles at Bangor)

My go-to Bangor system is to side with anything Donald McCain saddles in handicap hurdles. Since the start of 2011, this angle has thrown up 46 winners from 232 bets (19.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £88.33 to a £1 level stake at SP.

In the same period, had we only backed those with the benefit of a recent outing (within the past 28 days) we’d have found 33 winners from 106 bets (31.1%) for a huge profit of £121.57 (almost 115% on turnover). ZAFAR has two wins and a close second to his name from three runs for McCain and holds solid claims again.

Bet on Zafar at SBK

Catterick

3.20 – LOBO DEL MAR (system – Fountain Of Youth progeny switching from AW to turf)

Fountain of Youth offspring do much better on turf than on the All-Weather, so simply backing them when they switch back to grass is a profitable angle. LOBO DEL MAR is clearly no star, but he was only beaten by 1 1/2 lengths when fifth at Wolverhampton last time and could sneak into the frame at a big price.

Back Lobo Del Mar at SBK

3.50 – RAIN CAP (system – Fountain Of Youth turf runners, recent outing)

RAIN CAP also represents Fountain Of Youth and, although not switching from the All-Weather like Lobo Del Mar, he qualifies on the recent run angle. Backing all progeny of this sire on turf after a recent outing (within 28 days) would have returned a massive profit of £282.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. Rain Cap was an 18-1 winner on this system in August, so can justify each-way support despite this trip being on the sharp side for him.

Bet on Rain Cap at SBK

Kempton

5.30 – HEERATTHETRACK (system – dam Jessica Ennis with AW runners)

The vast majority of my breeding systems concern the sire, not the dam but Jessica Ennis is one of the exceptions. She’s foaled a huge number of useful All-Weather performers. Had we backed them all, then we’d have won 15 of our 57 bets (26.3%) and made a profit of £49.95 to a £1 stake.

HEERATTHETRACK has caught the eye in his two runs to date, finishing fourth at 200-1 in a 7f Wolverhampton maiden before his 28-1 third of 14 over 7f here at Kempton. The step up to 1m will suit and, while it’s likely that we won’t see the best of him until handicapping, he’s still worth an each-way interest.

Bet on Heeratthetrack at SBK

6.00 – TIGER CRUSADE (system – sire Siyouni on Polytrack, 4yo+)

Progeny of Siyouni have a strong record on Polytrack and they also improve with age. Had we backed those aged four or older on the All-Weather at Chelmsford, Dundalk, Kempton or Lingfield – the four venues in Britain and Ireland with that surface – we would have won 23 of our 113 bets (20.4% strike-rate) and made a profit of £58.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. TIGER CRUSADE, well drawn in stall 3, has Polytrack form figures of 4312 (1-4) and should be thereabouts once more.

Back Tiger Crusade at SBK

 

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