Another day and another Andrew Mount column with plenty more horse racing betting tips from the well-known industry broadcaster and journalist. After more than two decades in the business, writing for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, Andrew is also a tipster for GG.co.uk. Hear all of his analysis on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV. Andrew uses systems and statistical approach to betting in his never-ending quest for winners.
Today’s picks come from Goodwood, Kempton, Perth and Redcar. See which horses Andrew fancies and why right here:
2.52 – PEROTTO (systems – New Bay 3yos recent run & sire New Bay 1m2f)
Three-year-old progeny of New Bay are doing well when they have fitness on their side, winning 30 of their 117 starts (25.6% strike-rate) after returning to the track within six weeks of their previous outing. Backing them under these conditions would have yielded a profit of £31.34 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Marcus Tregoning has his string in fine form (four winners from 14 runners in the past fortnight) and PEROTTO has often shaped as though this step up to 1m2f were needed. He’s certainly bred to appreciate it, as New Bay offspring are 14 from 29 at this trip (+£35.73). He clocked a fast time when staying on into a close-up fifth in Group 2 company here last time and will appreciate the ease in grade to Listed level.
4.02 – HUNDRED ISLES (system – Mick Channon autumn handicappers)
Trainers are creatures of habit and Mick Channon tends to prime his Flat runners for an autumn campaign. Since 2014, had we simply bet all his Flat runners (turf or all-weather) in September, October or November we would have won 93 of our 759 bets (12.3% strike-rate) and made a profit of £40.27 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Concentrating on the higher grade handicaps only (Class 2, 3 or 4) would have found 47 winners from 347 bets (13.5%) for a profit of £77.28. Eliminating fillies and mares improves things further still (+£106.65).
HUNDRED ISLES found the 7f 140y trip on the short side when runner-up at Lingfield in a valuable Racing League contest last time and will relish the step back up to 1m 1f. The Lingfield form has been boosted by subsequent placed efforts from the third, fourth and sixth.
5.45 – LE FORBAN (system – Adam Kirby riding for George Baker on the AW)
Trainer George Baker and jockey Adam Kirby have teamed up to good effect on the All-Weather since racing resumed after lockdown last summer, with eight winners from 15 runners for a profit of £51.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. Newcomer Le FORBAN is a massive price here but is well drawn in stall 4 and his sire, Showcasing, has a fine record on Polytrack. He could be worth including in calculations.
8.15 – PINBALL WIZARD (system – 6f Kempton low-draw angle)
So far in 2021, there have been 48 races run over the 6f trip at Kempton and no less than 23 of them were won by the horse in stall 1 or 2. Backing them blind would have returned a profit of £28.76 to a £1 level stake at SP. PINBALL WIZARD has the best of the draw in stall 1 and will appreciate the return to the course and distance of his only previous win.
2.25 – MORE BUCK’S (system – Peter Bowen handicappers at Perth)
Since the beginning of 2010, Peter Bowen is 20 from 63 (31.8%) in handicaps Perth for a profit of £32.80 to a £1 level stake at SP. Fourteen of those winners finished first or second on their latest outing. MORE BUCK’S fits the bill in this handicap chase.
3.00 – DRUMLEE WATAR (system – Warren Greatrex hurdlers at Perth)
Warren Greatrex is a rare visitor to Perth and the Lambourn handler is four from eight with his hurdlers here. Those to start at 4-1 or shorter recorded form figures of 1111 (4-4), so DRUMLEE WATAR, the 11-4 favourite at the time of writing can make it five from five.
2.00 – THUNDER CHAP (system – Night Of Thunder 2yos, 0-2 previous runs)
Backing juvenile progeny of Night Of Thunder on their first three runs returns a healthy dividend thanks to 43 winners from 197 runners (21.8% strike-rate, +£64.99 to a £1 level stake at SP). David Barron’s THUNDER CHAP could be worth chancing on his debut.
4.53 – TOM’S REIGN BEAU (system – Tim Easterby first-time blinkers)
This 5f handicap looks highly competitive but, from what looks a good draw in stall 5, Tim Easterby’s TOM’S REIGN BEAU could go well in the first-time blinkers. Since 2012, his trainer shows a profit of £64.63 to the usual £1 stake when using this headgear in turf handicaps.
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