Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience. He is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website as well as an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV. He specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting.
Why a systems approach?
Stats and betting systems help me to quickly identify which races I should be concentrating on for tipping. If I can use systems to find a weak favourite to oppose, then I’m halfway to finding a profitable bet.
For example, Kempton’s all-weather track strongly favours low-drawn runners and horses who win from low draws are often flattered. Opposing low-drawn winners on their next start is a profitable exercise and there was a good example at Chelmsford recently (12 September 2021) with Mutafawwig. He won from stall 2 of 11 at Kempton on his previous run and was sent off as the 4-6 favourite for a competitive Class 2 handicap on the back of that. He finished fifth of the seven runners this time.
My database includes a system named ‘Flattered Kempton Winners’. This automatically flags up any horses who won from stalls 1 or 2 in Kempton races of eight or more runners on their latest outing. Betting all the qualifiers since racing’s resumption last summer would yielded a loss of £83.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (starting price).
Many of these were short-priced favourites like Mutafawwig. I also have numerous positive angles regarding speed figures, draw, pace, breeding, age, time of year, trainers, jockeys, headgear and wind surgery etc. For instance, backing any progeny of Milan on their first outing following a wind operation would have found 16 winners from 73 bets and returned a profit of £126.38 to a £1 level stake (+173% on turnover).
Some horses qualify on multiple systems and these are often good bets, some races throw up positives about most of the field and these races are best left alone. In this column, I will sift through the daily qualifiers and share the ones I regard as the strongest bets.
2.05 – NURSECLAIRE (system – Richard Fahey first-time hood on fillies)
NURSECLAIRE was highly tried after her 16-1 debut success at Carlisle, meeting trouble and running green when last of six in Listed company at Ascot before her 50-1 ninth of ten in the Group 3 Sweet Solera Stakes at Newmarket. She drops back down to novice company here, and it’s interesting to see the hood go on. Richard Fahey has a good record when fitting a filly with a first-time hood, scoring with seven of the 33 qualifiers (21.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £41.88 to a £1 level stake at SP.
4.45 – MAC AILEY (system – Ripon flops)
Plenty of horses fail to live up to market expectations at Ripon. They often struggle to handle the ridges and undulations or find their patient style is at a disadvantage on a track that usually favours frontrunners. I define ‘Ripon flops’ as horses who were favourite or second favourite for a Ripon handicap on their latest outing but finished fourth or worse.
Since the beginning of the 2016 season, had we backed all the qualifiers on their next start (provided that was on turf) we would have won 47 of our 278 bets (17% strike-rate) and made a profit of £101.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. MAC AILEY could only finish a six-length fourth of 11 when a 5-2 shot at Ripon last time but that was his fourth run there and his fourth defeat. He’s hardly prolific but has shown form at Beverley before and the likely strong pace in this apprentice classified contest will suit.
6.00 – FIGHTFORTHEROSES (system – owner JP McManus in low-grade handicaps)
We tend to associate leading owner JP McManus with big race glory at the Cheltenham Festival but he gets plenty of winners in low-grade handicaps in Britain. Had we sided with all his runners in Class 5 jumps handicaps, we would have found 99 winners from 440 bets (22.5% strike-rate) and made a profit of £118.77 to a £1 level stake at SP. Trainer Ben Haslam provided 13 of those winners from 55 runners (24%, +£31.37), so FIGHTFORTHEROSES could be worth a small interest on his stable debut.
6.30 – COUNTISTER (system – owner JP McManus in low-grade handicaps)
COUNTISTER, JP McManus owned and Ben Haslam trained, is a qualifier on the same system mentioned above. He arrives here in good form, having finished second of 12 behind a short-priced favourite at Sedgefield last time.
2.55 – YOUTHFUL KING (systems – sire Fountain Of Youth all-weather to turf switchers & Fountain Of Youth turf runners after a recent outing)
Progeny of Fountain Of Youth have a poor record on the all-weather and backing them when they switch to turf is a profitable angle (+£13.00 to a £1 level stake). More interesting is their record on turf after a recent outing (within 28 days) – this system has thrown up 22 winners from 203 qualifiers (11% strike-rate) and recorded a massive profit of £277.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. YOUTHFUL KING showed little when ninth on Lingfield’s Polytrack on last month’s debut but is worth a small and speculative interest at a huge price (he’s forecast at 100-1).
4.40 – DUAL IDENTITY (system – sire Belardo, 3yo+ over 1m-1m2f on turf)
Progeny of Belardo tend to improve with age and are better on turf than the all-weather. Had we supported all those aged three or older, over 1m-1m2f on turf, we would have found 11 winners from 49 bets (22.5% strike-rate) and made a profit of £69.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. DUAL IDENTITY contributed one of those wins when scoring at Salisbury on his penultimate start and can be forgiven his subsequent Kempton flop as the Polytrack surface didn’t suit. This track looks ideal and he can bounce back.
2.45 – KING OF STARS (system – small field)
KING OF STARS is a small-field expert whose all-the-way win at Pontefract last time took his record in fields of seven or fewer runners to 114311 (4-6). This track favours his frontrunning style, his stable won this race last year and he could be hard to catch.
3.20 – MARIE’S DIAMOND (system – small field)
Frontrunner MARIE’S DIAMOND does most of his winning in small fields, recording form figures of 1111P3212 (5-9) in fields of six or fewer runners. He looks the sole pace angle and can make all.
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