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Andrew Mount Horse Racing Tips – Thursday September 30th

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Another horse racing betting tips column penned by industry insider Andrew Mount contains several bets for Thursday. After more than two decades in the business, this broadcaster, journalist and tipster shares his systems with punters. Andrew is a regular contributor to the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, and his tips appear on GG.co.uk. He also appears on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV as a pundit. Andrew looks for unique statistical angles to his betting and this creates handy systems!

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Andrew found 9-2 winner Rain Cap at Catterick on Wednesday and has tips at Warwick, Salisbury, Lingfield and Chelmsford today:

Warwick

2.00 – BEYOND THE CLOUDS (systems – Charlie Longsdon September runners & Charlie Longsdon first-time cheekpieces in chases)

Jacardo’s 12-1 win at Worcester on Tuesday put trainer Charlie Longsdon in front for the current month. His full record in September now stands at 58 winners from 226 runners (25.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £77.10 to a £1 level stake at SP (prior to yesterday’s racing).

BEYOND THE CLOUDS is the latest qualifier and he also fits another profitable angle where the yard is concerned – the use of first-time cheekpieces on chasers. Longsdon is 16 from 67 (23.9%) when using this headgear in chase company for a profit of £23.10. He also looks the likely pace angle on a track that favours such tactics and he could prove hard to pass.

Back Beyond The Clouds at SBK

3.10 – KEEP MOVING (system – Warwick handicap chase, recent course experience angle)

Previous course experience is valuable in handicap chases at Warwick and, since the beginning of 2014, had we backed any horse who finished in the top three in another Warwick handicap last time out we would have won 22 of our 61 bets (36.1%) and made a profit of £41.50. KEEP MOVING, third here on his latest outing, was a winner on his only other course outing and can again reward each-way support.

Bet on Keep Moving at SBK

Salisbury

2.22 – CONSERVATIVE (system – sire Churchill with second-time out 2yos)

My radio colleague Kate Tracey first alerted me to the solid record of Churchill progeny on their second outing and this can be turned into a profitable system by backing the ones who showed plenty of ability on their debuts. Those who finished in the top four on their racecourse debuts have a five from ten record at the second time of asking (+£9.55 to a £1 level stake at SP).

CONSERVATIVE, third at 12-1 in a well-contested Yarmouth maiden on his debut 15 days ago, can further boost those already impressive stats. Interestingly, only one Churchill juvenile has scored on debut (from 45 runners), Aidan O’Brien’s River Thames who could turn out to be very useful.

Back Conservative at SBK

Lingfield

4.30 – VAUNTED (system – Clive Cox, first run in an AW handicap)

VAUNTED is the suggestion in a very competitive nursery. Since the start of 2104, trainer Clive Cox has a 35 from 170 record with his younger runners (two or three-year-olds) having their first crack at an all-weather handicap (20.6% strike-rate, +£56.86). The daughter of Ardad had no chance with wide-margin winner My Little Tip at Salisbury last time and that one has gone on to complete his hat-trick.

Bet on Vaunted at SBK

Chelmsford

6.00 – DANGER CLOSE (system – sire War Command at Chelmsford)

Progeny of War Command have a 13 from 55 record on Chelmsford’s Polytrack surface (23.6% strike-rate) for a very healthy profit of £98.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The strike-rate improves to 33.3% for those drawn in stall 6 or lower (11 winners from 33 qualifiers, +£90.75), so DANGER CLOSE, who has the best of the draw in stall 1, could be worth chancing in this 6f nursery.

She’s failed to beat a rival in two All-Weather outings since July’s nursery debut 16-1 third at Bath, but was stuck out wide (stall 11 of 11) in the first of them and could never get in a blow from off the pace here last time. Raceform’s speed figures have her as the fastest horse in the race on the strength of that effort and she should be an each-way price.

Back Danger Close at SBK

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