Andrew Mount is a leading racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years experience. He regularly contributes to the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook, the Racing Post Weekender and the GG.co.uk website. Andrew is also an expert pundit on William Hill radio and Racing Post TV too. He specialises in a systems-based statistical approach to betting.
Fresh from tipping two winners on Wednesday, Andrew has even more betting tips today. There are selections from Ayr, Chelmsford, Pontefract and Yarmouth below.
3.35 – BRINGITONBORIS (system – sire Distorted Humor at Ayr)
Six individual horses by the sire Distorted Humor have run here at Ayr and five of them have won, including BRINGITONBORIS who looks interesting in this 1m handicap. He returned to form with a narrow second at Newcastle on his latest outing and he won a division of this race last year. Backing all of his sire’s progeny at Ayr would have found seven winners from 19 bets for a profit of £28.61 to a £1 level stake at SP.
4.45 – MAN OF THE NIGHT (system – David O’Meara 2nd time switchers)
David O’Meara has a good record with horses that he takes over from other trainers, especially at the second time of asking. MAN OF THE NIGHT raced a little freely in a first-time visor when only fourth of six at Ripon on his stable debut last month and may do better with the blinkers back on (he won in this headgear for Richard Hannon in June, albeit with the help of the stewards).
Turf handicap runners having their second start for O’Meara, who finished in the top four on their stable debut, do well if returned to the track quickly for their next outing (within 28 days), landing 33 of their 113 starts (29.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £31.11 to the usual £1 level stake at SP.
5.30 – THE TIDE TURNS (system – sire Sea The Moon 1m 6f +)
Progeny of Sea The Moon improve for a test of stamina and backing the sire’s Flat runners over a distance of 1m6f or further would have found 14 winners from 63 bets (22% strike-rate) for a profit of £20.08 to a £1 level stake at SP. THE TIDE TURNS will appreciate the step back up to 1m6f after his last-time out Newcastle third in a 1m4f handicap.
6.00 – BIG IMPACT (system – sire Lethal Force on Polytrack, draw and distance adjusted)
Lethal Force progeny have a solid record on Polytrack, winning 64 of their 473 starts (13.5% strike-rate) at the three British Polytrack venues (Chelmsford, Kempton and Lingfield). We’d have lost money by backing them blind at SP (-£8.64 or 1.83% on turnover) but could have secured a profit of £108.29 to a £1 stake at Betfair SP. Had we only played low-drawn qualifiers (stall 5 or lower) over the shorter race distances (5f-7f) we would have won 39 of our 215 bets (18%) and made a profit at SP of £36.61.
BIG IMPACT has finished unplaced in both previous course outings but he was poorly drawn in stall 9 of 12 in the first of them (a race in which the first three finishers were drawn in stalls 3, 2 and 1) and had the worst of the draw in stall 10 of 10 in the other one. The 149-day absence is a worry but he nicely drawn in stall 2 of 14.
5.10 – GHOST RIDER (system – Mark Johnston, blinkered first-time on latest outing)
Unlike Tim Easterby (see below), Mark Johnston has a poor record when fitting one of his runners with first-time blinkers, scoring with just eight of the last 150 qualifiers (5.3% strike-rate) for a loss of over £103 to a £1 level stake. His latest qualifier was sent off as 7-4 favourite at Redcar on Tuesday and finished unplaced.
In the hope of turning this into a profitable betting angle I looked at what happened to these horses on their next start after their first-time blinkered one. They did very well, winning 14 of their 81 starts in the last five years (17.3%) and returning a huge profit of £138.38 to £1. GHOST RIDER, well drawn in stall 2 in this 1m handicap, now goes without the blinkers after last month’s seventh at Wolverhampton and is taken to bounce back.
5.40 – Fossos (system – Tim Easterby first-time blinkers in handicaps on turf)
Tim Easterby has a good record when using first-time blinkers in handicaps on turf, scoring with 22 of the 170 qualifiers since the start of the 2012 Flat season (13% strike-rate) for a profit of £65.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. 49 of the beaten horses finished second, third or fourth, often at big prices. FOSSOS has a useful draw in stall 5 and may be able to justify each-way support.
2.05 – ATOMISE (system – sire Ardad first-time out 2yos)
First-season sire Ardad is doing very well with his newcomers. Nine of the 43 qualifiers have overcome inexperience to score on their racecourse debuts (21% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £174.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. ATOMISE is the latest qualifier.
5.00 – DANCINGINTHEWOODS (system – Garswood 4yos on the Flat)
Progeny of Garswood tend to peak at the age of four and DANCINGINTHEWOODS looks interesting in this 6f handicap. Garswood juveniles have a strike-rate of just 5.6%, the three-year-olds about 10% but the four-year-olds are currently operating at an 18.5% strike-rate (30 winners from 162 bets) for a profit of £127.25 to a £1 level stake at SP.
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