Well-known horse racing journalist and broadcaster Andrew Mount brings more than 20 years of industry experience to the table. He writes regularly for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook, and knows a thing or two about betting. Andrew is also a tipster for the GG.co.uk website. Hear his thoughts on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV. Andrew prefers a statistical basis for his betting and unearthing useful systems.
Chillsea (4-1 from 10-1) and Sharvara (3-1) were winners for Andrew Mount over the weekend. He has more even more daily betting tips and statistical pointers for Monday’s horse racing action from Leicester on the level, Warwick over jumps and the latest All-Weather meeting at Wolverhampton.
4.20 – FACT OR FABLE (system – poorly drawn on Lingfield’s AW last time out)
Since the beginning of August, the inside rail has been riding very slow on Lingfield’s Polytrack, putting low-drawn runners (those drawn closest to the rail) at a big disadvantage. The system rules are to look for a horse who ran in a handicap of eight or more runners on the All-Weather course there last time out, who was drawn in stall 1, 2, 3 or 4, and back them next time. This system has thrown up 11 winners from 85 bets and made a huge profit of £125.75 to a £1 level stake at SP.
FACT OR FABLE was reportedly ‘never travelling’ when a 10-1 seventh of 11 at Lingfield last time, but never left the inside rail and might have needed the run after a break of more than two months. The likely strong pace will suit. Although a 19-race maiden on turf, she was only narrowly beaten off a 4lb higher mark at Chepstow just over a year ago. Fact Or Fable is a massive price yet worth a speculative each-way interest.
3.00 – LOCK’S CORNER (system – owner JP McManus, Warwick handicaps 2m 4f+)
Owner JP McManus has a phenomenal record with his runners at Warwick, especially in handicaps over 2m 4f or further. Since the start of 2013 he’s had 13 winners from 50 runners (26% strike-rate) for a profit of £70.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Looking just at steeplechases, that figure improves to 37% (10 winners from 27 runners, +£49.00). LOCK’S CORNER therefore looks very interesting now dropping in class after last month’s Stratford eclipse.
4.45 – WHITE WALKER (system – Gary Hanmer-trained handicap hurdles)
Gary Hanmer has a 13 from 104 record with his handicap hurdles for a profit of £15.38 to a £1 level stake at SP and WHITE WALKER looks very interesting in the 3m 1f contest. His trainer specialises in the longer distances. If we had only backed Hanmer’s handicap hurdlers over 2m 6f or further, then we would have won eight of our 44 bets and made a profit of £34.25.
6.00 – SALITEH (system – sire Ardad 2yo newcomers)
Ardad hit the ground running during his racing career, winning at Yarmouth on his debut in June 2016 and following up when 20-1 for the Windsor Castle Stakes at Royal Ascot just six days later. He’s already sired some precocious juveniles too. Had we simply bet on Ardad two-year-olds on their racecourse debuts, then we would have found nine winners from 44 bets (20.5% strike-rate) for a mammoth profit of £173.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. SALITEH is the latest qualifier.
8.30 – WILLY NILLY (systems – Donald McCain Flat runners, sire Morpheus at Wolverhampton)
Donald McCain is best known for his exploits as a jumps trainer but we’d have made a tiny profit by backing all of his 439 Flat runners (+£5.66 to a £1 level stake at SP). His Flat runners switching from hurdles have a poor record but those who ran in another Flat race last time out are showing a profit of £59.58 to £1.
WILLY NILLY caught the eye when sixth over hurdles in a fast time at Sedgefield on his penultimate start and has since run a close third back on the Flat at Carlisle. His sire. Morpheus, is +£15.38 with his Wolverhampton runners. The McCain stable is also flying with five winners from his last 14 runners at the time of writing.
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