Andrew Mount is a top horse racing adviser, broadcaster and journalist with over 20 years of experience. A regular contributor to print publications such as the Racing Post, Racing & Football Outlook and the Racing Post Weekender, he also writes for the GG.co.uk website. Andrew is an expert pundit on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV too. He takes a systems-based statistical approach to betting.
After putting up plenty of winners in his daily column this week, Andrew is back for more today. See his selections from Ayr, Kempton, Newbury and Newton Abbot below.
2.45 NOORBAN (System – David O’Meara runners in first-time visor)
David O’Meara has enjoyed plenty of success recently with his runners in first-time visors. Six of the 29 qualifiers since the start of last year scored for a profit of £49.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (171% profit on turnover). The consistent NOORBAN looks sure to appreciate the strong pace in this Listed contest and is rarely out of the frame, suggesting each-way claims at a big price.
4.50 – STARGAZER LILY (system – Hollie Doyle in Kempton handicaps 5f-7f)
Hollie Doyle has a good record at this venue and backing her mounts in handicaps over the shorter trips (5f-7f) makes sense. Doing so would have seen us land 30 of our 168 bets (18% strike-rate) and make a profit of £25.42 to a £1 level stake at SP. That’s a more than respectable profit of 15% on turnover.
This can boosted by only considering horses drawn in stall 6 or lower, however. Adding this draw angle would have found 25 winners from 99 bets for a profit of £38.92 (or 39% on turnover). STARGAZER LILY is well drawn in stall 1 and looks a likely improver on her nursery debut.
6.00 – AL SUIL EILE (system – sire Alhebayeb on Polytrack, 3yo+)
Juvenile progeny of Alhebayeb are 0-40 on Polytrack but they tend to improve with time. Had we backed all those aged three or older, we’d have found 18 winners from 138 bets (13% strike-rate) for a profit of £22.48 to a £1 level stake at SP.
At Kempton only, that improves to eight winners from 42 (19%, +£48.00) and it’s interesting to see AL SUIL EILE back at this venue on his second start since a wind operation. His only course outing for his current yard saw him win over this trip off 69 and he’s back down to the same mark this evening.
1.15 – FLYING SECRET (system – sire Showcasing on good to soft or softer going)
I have a list of 17 sires that I back blind when the ground is described as good to soft or softer. One of them, Showcasing, has a representative in this 7f maiden in the shape of FLYING SECRET.
Eve Johnson Houghton’s two-year-old has a achieved a good level of form in his three starts to date. Had we bet the sire’s progeny on this sort of going since racing resumed after lockdown, we would have won 18 of our 101 bets and made a profit of £74.23 to £1.
2.20 – SECRET STRENGTH (system – Mehmas 2yos on fourth or subsequent starts)
The sire Mehmas is a good source of two-year-old winners and they do especially well once they’ve had a few runs. Had we backed all of them on their fourth or subsequent starts, then we would have won 48 of our 235 bets (prior to yesterday’s racing), a strike-rate of 20.4% and profit of £73.39 to the usual £1 level stake at SP.
There are multiple qualifiers on this system today but Richard Hannon’s SECRET STRENGTH is especially interesting. That is because his yard has won four of the last six renewals of this race. Hannon’s charge is forecast as the 16-1 outsider of six, so looks a bit of value on that basis.
3.38 – THINQUE TANK (system – Charlie Longsdon September runners)
Charlie Longsdon does well with his runners at this time of year. A double at Fontwell on Tuesday took his record in September to 57 winners from 218 runners (26.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £72.10 to a £1 level stake at SP. THINQUE TANK, a winner at Ludlow in March when last seen, can defy the absence in this handicap hurdle.
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