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Aintree Festival Trends | Grand National Meeting Day Two Friday 8th April

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Fakir D'Oudairies

The Aintree Grand National Festival continues into Friday 8th April 2022, with the ITV horse racing cameras showing another five races. Here at SportsLens we give you the key Aintree Festival trends for the main races on day two – use these to build up the profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

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Aintree Festival Trends: Day Two (Friday 8th April 2022)

Races on day two at Aintree include the Topham Chase, which is run over the Grand National-style fences, plus the Grade One Marsh Chase and Grade Two Mildmay Novices’ Chase.

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2.20pm – Betway Top Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m110y ITV

2021 Winner: BELFAST BANTER (9/1)
Trainer: Peter Fahey
Jockey: Kevin Sexton

17/18 – Raced no more than 31 days ago
11/18 – Finished first or second last time out
11/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
9/18 – Aged 5 years-old
9/18 – Ran in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) last time out
6/18 – Won last time out
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (5 of last 11)
4/18 – Winning favourites
19 of the last 22 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
16 of the last 24 (67%) winners finished 1st or 2nd last time out
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners came from the top 4 in the market
The last 9 winners ran in bumpers
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 22 runnings
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 25 runnings
Just three Irish winners since 1978 (2 from 26 this century)
10 of the last 21 (48%) winners were placed in the top 6 in that season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

BEST BET: JONBON @ Evs with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: AUCUNRISQUE @ 14/1 with 888Sport

2.55pm – Betway Mildmay Novices´ Chase Grade 2 Cl1 3m1f ITV

2021 Winner: CHANTRY HOUSE (11/8 fav)
Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

18/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
18/18 – Raced no more than 55 days ago
15/18 – Aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
15/18 – Raced no more than 33 days ago
14/18 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
8/18 – Ran in the RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase last time out
8/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (including 3 of last 4)
2/18 – Irish trained winners
4 of the last 5 RSA (Brown Advisory) Chase winners to run have lost
Trainer Nicky Henderson, Colin Tizzard and Paul Nicholls have won 11 of the last 18 runnings between them
17 of the last 24 winners were aged 6 (6) or 7 (11) years-old
The last 18 winners were either French (7) or Irish (11) bred.
5 of the last 9 winners ran in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase
31 of the last 32 (97%) winners were priced 10/1 or less
24 of the last 30 winners had won over at least 3m before
35 of the last 39 (90%) winners had won twice or more over fences
16 of the last 19 (84%) winners raced at the Cheltenham Festival that season
20 of the last 22 (91%) winners had run in at least 4 chases
Just one winner returned 11/1 or bigger since 1989

BEST BET: L’HOMME PRESSE @ 11/8 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: AHOY SENOR @ 11/2 with 888Sport

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3.30pm – Marsh Chase Grade 1 Cl1 2m4f ITV

2021 Winner: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES (2/1 fav)
Trainer: Joseph O’Brien
Jockey: Mark Walsh

18/18 – Raced within the last 30 days
18/18 – Ran in either the Ryanair or Champion Chase that season
17/18 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
15/18 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
11/18 – Finished in the top three last time out
11/18 – Ran in the Queen Mother Champion Chase last time out
9/18 – Winning favourites
8/18 – Irish-trained winners
7/18 – Ran in the Ryanair Chase that season
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
23 of the last 30 (77%) runners had won over at least 2m4f
31 of the last 34 (91%) winners were aged 7 or older
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners were aged between 7-9 years-old
13 of the last 26 (52%) winners had finished third or better in the Queen Mother Champion Chase that season
17 of the last 26 (65%) winners were fav or 2nd fav
23 of the last 30 (77%) winners had won or been placed at the Grand National Meeting before
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners had won a Grade 1 Chase earlier that season
28 of the last 30 (93%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Only 1 past winner aged 6 years-old

BEST BET: FAKIR D’OUDAIRIES @ 11/8 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: SCEAU ROYAL @ 10/1 with 888Sport

4.05pm – Randox Health Topham Chase Handicap (Grade 3) Cl1 2m5f110y ITV

2021 Winner: LIVELOVELAUGH (15/2)
Trainer: Willie Mullins
Jockey: Patrick Mullins

17/18 – Raced within the last 34 days
16/18 – Aged 10 or younger
16/18 – Didn’t win last time out
13/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
11/18 – Raced within the last 23 days
10/18 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
10/18 – Unplaced last time out
4/18 – Trained by Peter Bowen
4/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/18 – Irish-trained winners
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Waley-Cohen
2/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
2/18 – Ridden by Tom O’Brien
5 of the last 7 winners carried 11-0 or more
Henderson, Mullins & Tizzard have trained 7 of the last 8 winners between them
6 of the last 7 winners were rated 141 or higher
5 of the last 7 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
8 of the last 14 (57%) winners raced in last year’s race
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners hadn’t won over fences that season
11 of the last 17 (65%) winners had raced over the GN-style fences before
15 of the last 28 (54%) winners had raced at least 7 times that season
Only 4 Irish-trained winners since 1979
Just 1 British or Irish-bred winner aged 7 or younger since 1985
Just two winners aged 11+ (114 have tried) since 1994

BEST BET: MISTER COFFEY @ 7/1 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: FRANCKY DU BERLAIS @ 25/1 with 888Sport

4.40pm – Doom Bar Sefton Novices´ Hurdle Grade 1 Cl1 3m110y ITV

2021 Winner: AHOY SENOR (66/1)
Trainer: Lucinda Russell
Jockey: Derek Fox

16/18 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/18 – Won by a horse aged 6 or younger
11/18 – Returned 7/1 or bigger in the market
8/18 – Won their last race
5/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Won by the Jonjo O’Neill stable
2/18 – Won by the Nigel Twiston-Davies stable
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Trainer Paul Nicholls is 0-from-8 (last 10 runnings)
13 of the last 14 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old (93%)
21 of the last 25 (84%) won at least twice over hurdles before
21 of the last 28 (75%) winners had won 4 times or more over hurdles
13 of the last 27 (48%) winners won over at least 2m7f previously
14 of the last 21 (67%) winners didn’t run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

BEST BET: BANBRIDGE @ 5/2 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: GELINO BELLO @ 11/2 with 888Sport

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Grand National Trends To Help You Find The Winner

With over 180 years of history, the Grand National is a race with a lot of back stories. Therefore, it’s also a contest that many key Grand National trends have built up – meaning we can look back a recent results and find the best profiles of past Grand National winners.

For example – the last horse aged 7 to win the Grand National was in 1940, while the last six Grand National winners were aged either 8 or 9 years-old.

We’ve a bundle more 2022 Grand National trends and stats for you here – use these to whittle down the Grand National runners and you’ll be left with a handful of horses that tick the best trends. Then all you’ll need is a big of luck!

2022 Grand National Times, Dates, Race Names and Full Festival Schedule

Grand National Festival – Opening Day (Thursday 7th April 2022)

  • 1.45pm The SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 2m 4f
  • 2.20pm The Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 2m 1f ITV
  • 2.55pm The Betway Bowl Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 3m 1f ITV
  • 3.30pm The Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
  • 4.05pm The Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Steeple Chase 2m 5f ITV
  • 4.40pm The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 3 2m ITV
  • 5.15pm The Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open NH Flat (Grade 2) 2m 1f

Grand National Festival – Ladies Day (Friday 8th April 2022)

  • 1:45pm The Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 3 2m 4f
  • 2.20pm The Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f ITV
  • 2.50pm The Betway Mildmay Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1) 3m 1f ITV
  • 3.25pm The Marsh Steeple Chase (Registered as the Melling) (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
  • 4.05pm The Randox Health Topham Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
  • 4.40pm The Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 3m ½f ITV
  • 5.15pm The Lydiate Handicap Hurdle (cond’ and amat’) (Class 2) 2m 1f

Grand National Festival – Randox Grand National Day (Saturday 9th April 2022)

  • 1:45pm The EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 3 3m ½f
  • 2.25pm The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
  • 3.00pm The Maghull Novices’ Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 2m ITV
  • 3.35pm The Liverpool Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 3m ½f ITV
  • 4.15pm The Betway Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed) 3m 1f ITV
  • 5:15pm The Randox GRAND NATIONAL Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 4m 2½f ITV
  • 6.20pm The Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) 2m 1f
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