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Aintree Festival Trends | Grand National Meeting Day Three Saturday 9th April

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Minella Times Grand National

The Aintree Grand National Festival concludes on Saturday 9th April 2022, with the ITV horse racing cameras showing another five races – including the Randox Grand National (5:15pm). Here at SportsLens we give you the key Aintree Festival trends for the main races on day three – use these to build up the profile of horses that have done well in each race over the years.

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Aintree Festival Trends: Day Three (Saturday 9th April 2022)

Races on day two at Aintree include the ‘big one’ – the Randox Grand National, plus a cracking supporting card that includes Grade One Liverpool Hurdle and Grade One Mersey Novices’ Hurdle.

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2.25pm – Betway Mersey Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m4f ITV

2021 Winner: MY DROGO (5/4 fav)
Trainer: Dan Skelton
Jockey: Harry Skelton

17/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
15/18 – Raced 39 days or less ago
15/18 – Won by a horse aged either 5 or 6 years-old
13/18 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the market
14/18 – Placed in the top three last time out
11/18 – Raced in the Supreme (4), Neptune (6) or County Hurdle (1) last time out
8/18 – Favourites to win (2 joint) (7 of the last 11 favs have won)
8/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/18 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
2/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc two of last 10 runnings)
Ballymore Hurdle winners (Cheltenham Festival) are 4-from-4 since 1999
11 of the last 12 winners were placed 1st, 2nd or 3rd last time out
18 of the last 23 (78%) winners were either fav or 2nd fav
11 of the last 15 (73%) winners had won at least 3 times hurdles
14 of the last 22 (65%) winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival
15 of the last 24 (63%) winners finished 6th or better at the Cheltenham Festival that season
Willie Mullins, Colin Tizzard, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson have won 10 of the last 17 (59%) runnings between them
7 of the last 11 runnings went to a 5 year-old
Only 1 winning 4 year-old in the last 25 years
Only 2 winning 7 year-olds in the last 32 years
9 of the last 11 winners returned 9/2 or shorter

BEST BET: THREE STRIPE LIFE @ 5/2 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: COLONEL MUSTARD @ 8/1 with 888Sport

3.00pm – Poundland Maghull Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

2021 Winner: SHISHKIN

Trainer: Nicky Henderson
Jockey: Nico De Boinville

18/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
18/18 – Winners from the first 3 in the market
18/18 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the market
15/18 – Won by a horse aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Ran within the last 35 days
13/18 – Placed in the top three in their last race
12/18 – Ran in the Arkle Chase last time out
10/18 – Won by a horse aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/18 – Won their last race
8/18 – Favourites that won
5/18 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
4/18 – Irish-trained winners
3/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson yard (inc 3 of last 10 runnings)
3/18 – Won by the Henry de Bromhead yard (inc 3 of the last 8 runnings)
Arkle Chase winners have a good record – 6-8 in the last 21 years and 4-from-4 since 2008
Since 1989 there have been just 4 Irish-trained winners – 2013, 2015, 2016 & 2019
Since 1999 trainer Paul Nicholls has had 7 winners and 7 runners-up
20 of the last 26 (77%) winners ran in the Arkle Chase that season
7 of the last 12 winners were French bred
10 of the last 13 winners have won at least 3 times over fences
Just 1 winner in the last 22 years finished unplaced last time out
Just 1 winner in the last 24 years returned 13/2 or bigger
No 9 year-old winner since 1973

BEST BET: EDWARDSTONE @ 7/10 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: THIRD TIME LUCKI
@ 5/1 with 888Sport

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3.35pm – JRL Group Liverpool Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 3m110y ITV

2021 Winner: THYME HILL (5/2 fav)
Trainer: Philip Hobbs
Jockey: Tom O’Brien

15/17 – Priced 11/2 or less in the market
15/17 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
14/17 – Ran within the last 30 days
12/17 – Won or finished 2nd at this meeting previously
10/17 – Placed 4th or better in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham)
12/17 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
12/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/17 – Won their last race
9/17 – Favourites to win (6 odds-on)
6/17 – Raced in that season’s Cleeve Hurdle
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard
2/17 – Trained by Alan King
2/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/17 – Irish-trained winners
14 of the last 17 (78%) winners raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
16 of the last 17 (94%) winners had won a Grade 1 or 2 before
13 of the last 17 (76%) had run at this meeting before
14 of the last 17 (82%) were favourite or second favourite
7 of the last 12 winners won a race at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
6 of the last 12 winners won the Stayers’ Hurdle (Cheltenham) before winning this and 5 from last 6 (since becoming a G1 race)
Previous winners of the race are currently 5-from-5
Horses rated 170+ are currently 6-from-7
No winner older than 9 years-old

BEST BET: FLOORING PORTER @ 7/4 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: CHAMP
@ 7/2 with 888Sport

4.15pm – Betway Handicap Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f ITV

2021 Winner: HAPPYGOLUCKY (11/4 fav)
Trainer: Kim Bailey
Jockey: David Bass

14/18 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
16/18 – Had run within the last 35 days
13/18 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
11/18 – Raced at the Cheltenham Festival last time out
10/18 – Priced 9/1 or bigger in the market
10/18 – Unplaced in their last race
4/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Favourites that won
3/18 – Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (3 of the last 11)
2/18 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
Only 3 of the last 22 winners were aged 10+
Only 4 winners carried more than 11st in the last 17 years
Just 1 Irish-trained winner in the last 44 runnings
9 of the last 11 (82%) winners were rated between 131 and 140
10 of the last 14 winners didn’t win earlier that season
7 of the last 9 winners had won over 3m before
Only 2 of the last 15 winners won last time out

BEST BET: SHAN BLUE @ 9/4 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST: TEA CLIPPER
@ 17/2 with 888Sport

5.15pm – Randox Health Grand National Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 4m3f110y ITV

2021 Winner: MINELLA TIMES (11/1)
Trainer: Henry De Bromhead
Jockey: Rachael Blackmore

29/30 – Officially rated 137 or higher
28/30 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
27/30 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
26/30 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
24/30 – Aged 9 or older
24/30 – Returned a double-figure price
23/30 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
23/30 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
22/30 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
19/30 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
19/30 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
19/30 – Aged 10 years-old or younger
17/30 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
17/30 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
16/30 – Placed favourites
15/30 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/30 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
11/30 – Trained in Ireland (inc 8 of the last 15 years)
7/30 – Ran in a previous Grand National
7/30 – Won last time out
6/30 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
3/30 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/30 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/30 – Ridden by Davy Russell (2 of the last 3)
0/30 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

      • Since 1978, 128 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just two winners – Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
      • 17 of the last 22 winners were bred in Ireland
      • Only 3 horse that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961
      • The last 7 year-old or younger to win was back in 1940
      • 13 of the last 24 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
      • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
      • 3 of the last 12 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
      • 10 of the last 18 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
      • 5 of the last 19 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
      • Only five 8 year-olds have won the last 26 renewals
      • Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 35 years (77 have attempted)
      • 22 of the last 24 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
      • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (18 Year)

16/18 – Had won over at least 3m previously
15/18 – Ran less than 50 days ago
16/18 – Officially rated 137 or higher
14/18 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
11/18 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/18 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/18 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/18 – Experienced the National fences before
8/18 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/18 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
5/18 – Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
5/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
3/18 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/18 – Won by the McCain yard

BEST GRAND NATIONAL BET: SNOW LEOPARDESS @ 15/2 with 888Sport
NEXT BEST GRAND NATIONAL BET: FIDDLERONTHEROOF
@ 16/1 with 888Sport

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Grand National Trends To Help You Find The Winner

With over 180 years of history, the Grand National is a race with a lot of back stories. Therefore, it’s also a contest that many key Grand National trends have built up – meaning we can look back a recent results and find the best profiles of past Grand National winners.

For example – the last horse aged 7 to win the Grand National was in 1940, while the last six Grand National winners were aged either 8 or 9 years-old.

We’ve a bundle more 2022 Grand National trends and stats for you here – use these to whittle down the Grand National runners and you’ll be left with a handful of horses that tick the best trends. Then all you’ll need is a big of luck!

2022 Grand National Times, Dates, Race Names and Full Festival Schedule

Grand National Festival – Opening Day (Thursday 7th April 2022)

  • 1.45pm The SSS Super Alloys Manifesto Novices’ Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 2m 4f
  • 2.20pm The Anniversary 4-y-o Juvenile Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 2m 1f ITV
  • 2.55pm The Betway Bowl Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 3m 1f ITV
  • 3.30pm The Betway Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
  • 4.05pm The Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Steeple Chase 2m 5f ITV
  • 4.40pm The Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 3 2m ITV
  • 5.15pm The Goffs UK Nickel Coin Mares’ Standard Open NH Flat (Grade 2) 2m 1f

Grand National Festival – Ladies Day (Friday 8th April 2022)

  • 1:45pm The Orrell Park Handicap Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 3 2m 4f
  • 2.20pm The Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m ½f ITV
  • 2.50pm The Betway Mildmay Novices’ Steeple Chase (Grade 1) 3m 1f ITV
  • 3.25pm The Marsh Steeple Chase (Registered as the Melling) (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
  • 4.05pm The Randox Health Topham Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 2m 5f ITV
  • 4.40pm The Sefton Novices’ Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 3m ½f ITV
  • 5.15pm The Lydiate Handicap Hurdle (cond’ and amat’) (Class 2) 2m 1f

Grand National Festival – Randox Grand National Day (Saturday 9th April 2022)

  • 1:45pm The EFT Construction Handicap Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 3 3m ½f
  • 2.25pm The Betway Mersey Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 1) 2m 4f ITV
  • 3.00pm The Maghull Novices’ Steeple Chase (Class 1) Grade 1 2m ITV
  • 3.35pm The Liverpool Hurdle (Class 1) Grade 1 3m ½f ITV
  • 4.15pm The Betway Handicap Steeple Chase (Listed) 3m 1f ITV
  • 5:15pm The Randox GRAND NATIONAL Steeple Chase (Grade 3) 4m 2½f ITV
  • 6.20pm The Weatherbys nhstallions.co.uk Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Grade 2) 2m 1f
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