A few weeks ago we took at look at some betting trends for the 1st leg of Champions League knockout stage ties. Today we will continue our analysis and take a look at trends for 2nd leg matches. Do teams that enjoy an easy win in the opening leg follow up in the 2nd leg? Do high scoring 1st leg matches suggest another high scoring match in the 2ng leg? Let’s take a look.
Home Teams In 2nd Legs Coming Off A 1st Leg Defeat
This is one of the clearest trends in Champions League knockout stage betting since the 1998/99 season. Clubs playing at home in the 2nd leg following a defeat in the opening leg are 48-13-16 since 1998/99.
That’s a fairly impressive straight up record for clubs responding to a loss. But how profitable has it been to bet on such teams? Well if you had bet £1 on each of these home clubs, you would have made a profit in the range of just under £20, or in other words, a return on your overall investment of just under 26%.
Away Teams In 2nd Legs Coming Off A 1st Leg Defeat
This time we see a situation where it has been profitable to bet against teams coming off a defeat. Since 1998/99 teams that lost at home in the 1st leg have a straight up record of just 3-10-26. Had you bet £1 on each these teams across this timespan, you would have lost £24, a return of almost -62%.
On the other hand, betting £1 on the home team in this situation would have seen you earn a profit of just over £7, a return of near on 18%.
Goal Total, Overs And Unders
If the 1st leg of a tie had been high scoring, does it suggest the 2nd tie will likewise be high scoring? Well since 1998/99, ties that saw the 1st leg finish over 2.5 goals, saw the 2nd leg finish over 2.5 goals 50.0% of the time. On the other hand, ties that saw the 1st leg finish under 2.5 goals, saw the 2nd leg finish over 2.5 goals just over 54% of the time (not including extra time).
We can add another wrinkle to this trend. Ties that saw the 1st leg match end 1-1, saw the 2nd leg finish over 2.5 goals in 19 of 24 matches played with at least 2 goals scored in 22 of those 24 matches.
As always, it’s worth recognising that although these trends have proved to profitable (or un-profitable as the case may be) since 1998/99, they come from a small sample size, with such results possibly being the result of chance rather than a genuine market inefficiency. However, these trends are still worth taking into account when determining your bets for 2nd leg Champions League matchups in 2014. Good luck!
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