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Fabio Capello has named his England squad for Saturday’s glamour friendly against Brazil in Qatar, and the Italian maestro has recalled some old faces, including Darren Bent and Jermaine Jenas, but spread bettors must be careful as the squad is still missing some key players.
Punters looking to buy England’s win index spread will have noted some of these absentees, Steven Gerrard, Ashley Cole and David Beckham who have over 200 caps between them.
England v Brazil – a 1-1 draw or worse?
Despite a solid 2-1 victory over Slovenia in the Three Lions’ last friendly, defensive errors have proved an Achilles heel in their previous two such matches – a 2-2 draw with Holland and a convincing 2-0 defeat to Spain – which would have pleased sellers of England’s win index spread.
The last time England faced Brazil was back in 2007 where spread buyers of England’s win index were left disappointed after Diego scored to level with practically the last kick of the game. That 1-1 draw has been a consistent result between the sides, with the same scoreline occurring no less than four times in their last seven matches since 1992.
Spread sellers would argue that England have not beaten Brazil since 1990, and worse still, that they have beaten the Samba Boys just three times, drawing nine and losing ten. Spread bettors looking at the match supremacy market will have noted that the last time a match was won by more than a single goal was in 1995, when Brazil won 3-1.
A low-scoring game
England under Capello have shown terrific form and have only lost twice in 2009 in ten matches, winning three of their last four. They have also been in excellent form in front of goal, scoring in all bar two of their games in 2009. Sporting Index’s totals goals market is sure to provide plenty of interest for spread bettors with the attacking talent on show.
Buyers of the total goals spread will be aware that England have scored 22 times in their last seven fixtures, while Brazil’s last five games have seen an average of 2.8 goals. But sellers will point to that fact that fixtures involving these sides don’t often produce many goals, the most being six, which happened in 1964 and 1956. The last seven head-to-heads have seen an average of just 2.2 goals.
Star England Players
Both Emile Heskey and Carlton Cole are out injured so the goals responsibility will rest on Wayne Rooney, Peter Crouch, Jermain Defoe and Darren Bent, depending on who starts. Those spread bettors looking to buy goals might hope that Peter Crouch partners Rooney as the Tottenham striker has scored 16 from his last 17 starts.
Rooney has also proved a reliable scorer for buyers of his individual goal spreads – having scored eight in England’s qualifying campaign taking his tally to 25 from 55 international games. Frank Lampard’s goal minutes spread should also spark some interest among buyers – he has hit three in his last five matches.
England v Brazil Betting
Best Bet: Buy: Brazil Team Corners (4.75 – 5.25), Winning Goal (34 – 37). Sell: CS: 0-0 Draw (12 – 15).
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