The NAP of the Day for Monday, 4 October from SportsLens experts is Too Friendly on his debut over obstacles in the 2m juvenile hurdle at Stratford (3:22). Now locally trained, this Dan Skelton new inmate appeals at odds of Evens.
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Representing the Gredley Family, Too Friendly carries the same colours as stable companion Allmankind. This three-year-old gelding by Camelot now makes his bow over obstacles after running well over 10 furlongs on the Flat. The yard sent out a winner at another local track in Uttxoeter yesterday, so Too Friendly looks a value Bet of the Day today. Read on and see reasons why he is the NAP of the Day at Evens for 4 October.
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Why will Too Friendly win?
Skelton already has a phenomenal 44 per cent strike rate with his Stratford runners this season so far. Nobody has trained more winners at this venue over the last five years. In fact, Skelton saddled twice as many horses to victory here (35) as any other handler in that period. There are also some parallels between Too Friendly and his owner-stable companion Allmankind too.
Both horses ran in the valuable 1m 2f Flat handicap for three-year-olds during the July Festival at Newmarket. Allmankind pulled fiercely, a trait he continued over obstacles, and finished last two years ago. Too Friendly shaped far better in the same event. He made some headway when ridden entering the final furlong but wasn’t going the pace to threaten the leaders and came eighth.
However, the fact that Too Friendly only finished six lengths behind Dubai Honour reads very well. The winner has been hotly progressive in winning consecutive Group 2 contests in France, including the Prix Dollar on Arc Weekend. Foxes Tales, the gallant head runner-up at Newmarket, came out and won the Group 3 Rose Of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock next time. This is very strong form indeed.
Too Friendly’s effort behind black type winners is arguably better than the Flat handicap wins posted by main market rival Oceanline. Both have an 85 rating on the level. However, preference is for Skelton’s debutant. Back Too Friendly with QuinnBet and double your money if he wins. A £25 wager returns £50 at his current odds. Should he lose, the QuinnBet refund the losing stake as a free bet.
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