The latest Andrew Mount column has even more horse racing betting tips from the well-known industry broadcaster, journalist and tipster. With over two decades in the business behind him, he writes for the Racing Post, Weekender and Racing & Football Outlook. Andrew also gives tips for GG.co.uk. Listen to his thoughts on William Hill Radio and Racing Post TV where he is a regular pundit. Andrew uses stats and devises unique systems to help source winners.
Fresh from tipping winners at Perth and Kempton yesterday, Andrew has another set of fancies today. Read all about his selections from Newmarket, Perth, Pontefract and Wolverhampton below:
Newmarket
2.10 – RESTLESS ENDEAVOUR (system – Mick Appleby ‘switchers’)
Mick Appleby has a great record with horses he takes over from other yards, with 80 of the 446 qualifiers (18% strike-rate) scoring at the first time of asking for him. Backing them blind would have returned a huge profit of £309.42 to a £1 level stake at SP. RESTLESS ENDEAVOUR clocked a good time when third at Catterick last time and that form has been franked by the winner.
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5.05 – BALEARIC (system – Sire Gleneagles first-time headgear)
Paul & Oliver Cole’s BALEARIC was a winner at Newcastle in March when fitted with blinkers for the first time and, although disappointing in two starts since July’s Chepstow success, he may be able to bounce back in new headgear today. Gleneagles progeny are 13 from 82 (16% strike-rate) when fitted with first-time headgear for a profit of £17.45 to £1. Six of these were trained by the Cole yard and four of them won (20-1, 11-1, 7-2 and 8-13).
Perth
1.55 – NASTASIYA (system – dam Nezhenka, 3yos)
Nezhenka’s first three foals – Timoshenko, Nikolayeva and Nastenka – have won plenty of races. Although NASTASIYA is 0-7, it could be worth siding with her now that she makes her jumps debut for a new yard. Nezhenka offspring have a combined record of 12 from 55 (21.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £15.61 to a £1 level stake at SP, improving to ten from 24 (41.7%) for the three-year-olds only (+£33.61).
2.30 – ONE TRUE KING (system – Nigel Twiston-Davies, chase debutants in handicaps)
ONE TRUE KING, tenth of 23 in the 2020 Champion Bumper at the Cheltenham Festival, had a good first season over hurdles, scoring at Uttoxeter and Leicester either side of two runner-up efforts at Cheltenham. All those runs took place in the early months of the season and he looks a very interesting recruit to fences.
It’s interesting to see Nigel Twiston-Davies pitch him straight into a handicap rather than take the novice or beginners’ chase route, suggesting he thinks One True King is well handicapped.
Since the start of this century, his trainer is 45 from 247 with his debutants in handicap company (18.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £18.01 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who were returning from a break of more than 150 days, as One True King is doing, were 30 from 111 (27%) for a profit of £58.55 at SP (+53% on turnover).
Pontefract
2.20 – FUENTE OVEJUNA (system – Ralph Beckett Pontefract runners)
Ralph Beckett does well at Pontefract, scoring with 25 of his 70 runners (35.7% strike-rate) since the beginning of the 2005 season for a profit of £21.84 to a £1 level stake at SP. He’s 14 from 34 with fillies in that period (41.2%, +£21.93). Top weight FUENTE OVEJUNA will appreciate the switch to nursery company after finding Listed level too hot at Salisbury last time.
3.30 – COTTAM LANE (system – sire Twilight Son 3yo sprinters, fast turf or AW)
Progeny of Twilight Son usually take a big step forward in their three-year-old campaign. Had we backed all the sprinters (5f-6f) on good/faster going or an All-Weather surface, we would have found 28 winners from 113 bets (24.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £17.63 to a £1 level stake at SP.
COTTAM LANE, a course and distance winner on his penultimate start, wasn’t beaten far when fifth at York last time out. It was encouraging to see the seventh and eighth from that race – Nomadic Empire and First Edition – run one-two at Leicester on Monday and give the form a boost. Trainer Kevin Ryan has won this race twice in the past ten years from just four runners.
Wolverhampton
8.00 – MYKONOS ST JOHN (systems – poorly drawn on Lingfield’s AW last time out & ‘Racing League Flops’)
MYKONOS ST JOHN never left the ‘dead’ rail when tenth of 12 from his poor low draw in a Racing League contest at Lingfield last time and that run is easily forgiven. That was also his first attempt at the 1m 2f trip, and he’ll be far happier down in distance and class today.
Since a gelding operation, his all-weather record over 1m and 1m 1f reads 111 (3-3), including a course and distance success. He also qualifies on what I call my ‘Racing League Flops’; system. Horses that disappointed in those £25,000 to the winner Class 3 Racing League handicaps (finishing sixth or worse) often bounce back to win in a lower grade next time, landing eight of their 49 starts for a profit of £12.63 to £1.
8.30 – WESTERN BEAT (system – sire Mehmas with AW runners)
Progeny of Mehmas have a superior strike-rate on the All-Weather compared to turf (17.5% as opposed to 13.3%). Backing them all on synthetics would have found 47 winners from 269 bets for a profit of £35.79 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Those who finished out of the frame on turf on their latest outing are often overlooked in the betting when switched to the all-weather to contest a handicap, winning six of their 39 starts for a profit of £38.25.
WESTERN BEAT has only had one All-Weather start, winning at Chelmsford last October. He could bounce back on his first outing since finishing eighth of 15 when the 7-2 favourite at Nottingham in May.
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