To be successful at anything you do in life, you need to have a plan of attack. All great athletes and business leaders write down a strategy and a set of goals before they go after a goal, and while football betting isn’t in the same realm of winning the World Cup or building a successful business empire, most would agree that the same set of principles and management skills are needed if you want to make money from betting on football online.
While the strategy may vary from beginners to the seasoned professional bettors, the one thing that is the same between the two types is the need to be consistent and goal-oriented. To do this you need to follow some simple rules to get you on the right track from the start.
Here are just a couple of football betting strategy tips to follow for gamblers of all levels.
Always bet with value:
What exactly is value? Well to get value, you need to take a look at the betting odds from a number of different books to see which one is offering the best line possible. Once you’ve find the best line, take a look and calculate if the team has value.
To do this you need to follow some a simple value formula listed below:
Assuming you think a team playing at home has a 50% chance of winning, you’d then only bet on that team if the odds were 2.00 or better.
That’s because 50% = 0.50 * 2.00 = 1.00 (or the fair value). Anything less than this price would mean you’d be losing money on the bet over the course of a football season.
Do not bet on team based on a “hunch” you’ve got. Being a little more analytical and thinking things through can really help you find the best value picks around.
Always check the away and home form:
It goes without saying, but doing your homework before you bet is something everyone should do. Would you throw a tenner down on two teams you’ve never heard of or seen play before? Of course not. The same goes for betting on clubs you have knowledge of.
Make sure you visit a website like the BBC prior to a match to review some of the stats and information prior to the match. Whilst Liverpool may be a better side than Boro, most of us know of their troubles at the Riverside. Would you really stake Liverpool if they were massive favourites based on their name. If you’re a novice bettor with no sense you might.
But for those of us who read the stats and check out the past and current away/home form, you’d see a growing trend that could make Boro a great value play. Again, doing your homework is essential if you want to win.
Recent form: Tottenham’s early season poor start to the Premier League season was a slide of epic proportions. And if you followed the league and the sport you would’ve noticed that Tottenham couldn’t buy three points if it killed them. Assuming you caught on to the growing trend, you would have noticed that all clubs playing against Tottenham were great value – even if the club going against them was far inferior.
Looking at the recent form of a team can show you whether they’re cracking at the moment or if they can’t be beat. Just taking a peek at the results can tell you a lot about a club. Plus, it can be a great indicator when trying to measure if a club has value.
Do your digging:
Firstly, nobody’s asking you to be a private investigator here and get dirt on the opposition before placing a bet. What I am asking you to do is dig a bit deeper before you place a bet. That would mean taking a look at some extenuating circumstances before you lay your hand-earned money on the line.
You need to take a look at injuries within the squad. If Chelsea are missing Michael Essien for an upcoming clash with Manchester United at Old Trafford, you’d have to figure their value would take a hit given Essien’s importance in the starting XI.
Aside from looking at the obvious injury reports prior to the match (that could mean looking at the reports on Friday night or first thing Saturday morning), you’ll also want to take into account recent events at the club and their schedule.
If a club is in the midst of playing a Europa Cup and league match in the span of four days, you’d have to assume their form will suffer in the latter match. You can almost guarantee changes will be made to keep legs fresh over a long season. If the club is a top four side, that could mean they’ll keep their form high without skipping a beat. But if the club is someone like Everton, a good starting XI that seriously lacks in depth, you’d then have to figure a second match in four days would give a side that had a week to prepare the extra advantage.
All of these things can be found if you take the time to dig below the surface.
Don’t bet on a Derby match:
Whilst this really isn’t a strategy tip, it is one that needs to be made. Derby matches are fantastic affairs to watch in person or one the telly. And whilst we’d all love to bet on a match that has a lot riding on it, you need to be aware of the hotly contested nature of these matches.
Cards usually fly at a rapid pace, and as shocking as it may be, the away club sometimes has the advantage due to the fact that they have a hostile crowd screaming at them. The drive to quiet the home fans can make a heavy derby underdog a great value play.
Additionally, you’ll notice that derby games tend to have late equalisers and constant drama. Just look at this year’s Manchester United/Liverpool match at Old Trafford. Liverpool threw the trends and history going against right out the window and humbled United. Who saw that coming?
Again, take the time to watch the derby match … just don’t bet on them.