Our friends at www.oulala.com – a fantasy football game partnered by Opta – have taken a detailed statistical look at Sunday’s big clash at Old Trafford between 3rd placed Manchester United and Southampton who occupy the last Champions League spot in 4th, specifically from a detailed home vs away point of view and the results weigh heavily in one team’s favour.
The game comes just 5 weeks after the reverse fixture in which Manchester United won 2-1 at St Mary’s in December. Southampton had 15 shots compared to United’s 3 however lost the game. This was thanks to David De Gea’s excellent form as well as deadly finishing from striker Robin van Persie.
Manchester United have won their last 5 home league matches scoring 12 goals along the way so will be going into Sunday’s game high on confidence. In the home league table United sit 2nd behind Chelsea who of course have a 100% home record. United have an 80% win rate at home after 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from their 10 games.
Southampton go into the game on the back of a 2-0 home win over Arsenal. The Saints also enjoyed a win in their last away match at Selhurst Park on Boxing day against Crystal Palace in a 3-1 victory. However, their away form is somewhat inconsistent this season after 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their 9 games, a win rate of just 44%. The Saints occupy 5th place in the away league table.
The home team appear to hold all the cards in Sunday’s fixture with United’s home stats far outweighing Southampton’s stats away. They have scored more than double the goals that Southampton have and have conceded 1 goal fewer.
Manchester United lead on possession having enjoyed 61.4% of the ball at Old Trafford compared to Southampton’s 54.7% away from home. They also dominate in many other areas including pass completion (87.8% v 79.9%), have made 100 more passes than Southampton per game (596 v 495) and lead in attack with more shots (14.2 v 12) plus they have a narrow 1% better shot accuracy (37% v 36%).
With both Tottenham and Arsenal breathing down Southampton’s neck, a defeat at Old Trafford could see both North London clubs make up much needed ground in the fight for the all important top 4 Champions League spots.
With the stats firmly in Manchester United’s favour everything points towards a home win for Louis van Gaal’s side.